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Full evidence — RUN_2026-09-26_7

Question: Do non-citizens vote in US federal elections in numbers large enough to change election outcomes?

Complete answers for every model, language and answer round in this run. English translations are shown where available; where they are not, the original text is shown and was not compared.

One answer round means asking the model once in every tested language.

Fact source evidence

FactCheck.org

Non-citizens occasionally vote illegally in U.S. federal elections, but the documented numbers are extremely small and not large enough to change the outcome of a federal election.

URL: https://www.factcheck.org/2025/04/musks-unsupported-claim-to-have-unveiled-massive-illegal-voting-by-noncitizens/
Final URL: https://www.factcheck.org/2025/04/musks-unsupported-claim-to-have-unveiled-massive-illegal-voting-by-noncitizens/
Retrieved: 2026-09-26T01:40:13.156052+00:00
Saved copy SHA-256: 779611054dbb97e0e5e544566c46baaeb58dc43e7ee2593280b4b04558a4197c

Q004

Claude Sonnet 5

Repeated check: no difference in 2 answer rounds. The report shows answer round 1.

English — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - 6 facts about false noncitizen voting claims and the election - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - 6 facts about false noncitizen voting claims and the election - 6 facts about false noncitizen voting claims and the election - 6 facts about false noncitizen voting claims and the election - What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - Administration's focus on noncitizen voting has led to 160 arrests. Experts say that shows it's rare - ABC News - Administration's focus on noncitizen voting has led to 160 arrests. Experts say that shows it's rare - ABC News - Administration's focus on noncitizen voting has led to 160 arrests. Experts say that shows it's rare - ABC News - Administration's focus on noncitizen voting has led to 160 arrests. Experts say that shows it's rare - ABC News - Administration's focus on noncitizen voting has led to 160 arrests. Experts say that shows it's rare - ABC News - Administration's focus on noncitizen voting has led to 160 arrests. Experts say that shows it's rare - ABC News - trump noncitizen voter fraud fact check

English translation

Short answer: No

The extensive body of evidence — from federal agencies, nonpartisan research organizations, and both liberal and conservative-leaning groups — consistently shows that non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections is exceedingly rare and has never been shown to affect an election outcome.

What the evidence shows

It's already illegal, with real deterrents. As of 1924, all states had banned noncitizens from voting in federal elections, and in 1996, Congress added criminal penalties. Noncitizens face up to five years in federal prison for even registering to vote and illegal voting can trigger immigration consequences, including deportation.

Multiple independent studies find only a tiny handful of cases: - After the 2016 election, the Brennan Center for Justice surveyed local election officials in 42 jurisdictions with high immigrant populations and found just 30 cases of suspected noncitizens voting out of 23.5 million votes cast, or 0.0001%. - A Heritage Foundation database of election fraud cases identified just 23 instances of noncitizen voting between 2003 and 2022. A separate Washington Post review of that same database found 85 cases relating to allegations of noncitizens voting between 2002 and 2023. - A state audit after the 2016 election found 41 cases of green card holders who voted out of nearly 4.8 million votes in North Carolina, and an audit in Georgia showed 20 suspected noncitizens on the rolls out of 8.2 million registered voters (0.00024% of the state's list). - In Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% of ballots cast.

Even the government's own recent statement confirms this. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services itself acknowledged in an October 2024 letter that federal law prohibits non-citizens from registering and voting in federal elections, and "the evidence is clear that these laws are working as intended—it is extremely uncommon for noncitizens to vote in Federal elections."

Recent (2025-2026) large-scale enforcement efforts confirm the pattern. Despite an intensive Trump administration crackdown, results remain minuscule relative to the electorate: the Trump administration's whole-of-government effort to find and prosecute noncitizens illegally on state voter rolls has resulted in about 1,600 voter fraud cases that have led to 160 arrests — a tiny fraction of the country's more than 211 million active registered voters. Notably, these numbers fall far short of the hundreds of thousands of noncitizen voters that Trump and DHS had previously suggested were on the rolls.

Even in Texas's high-profile investigation, of 2,724 flagged registered voters, only 117 cases were referred for investigation — out of about 18 million registered voters in the state.

Experts are explicit that outcomes aren't affected. Election law expert David Becker, commenting on the 2025-2026 investigations, said the real numbers are consistently small when potential instances of noncitizen voting are investigated, and he was not aware of a single election whose outcome was altered by noncitizens voting. Similarly, Brennan Center counsel Alice Clapman stated that the data indicates noncitizen voting is not going to sway election outcomes.

Bottom line

Across audits in numerous states, federal databases, nonpartisan research centers, and even a Trump-era enforcement crackdown involving hundreds of federal employees, the documented cases number only in the dozens to low hundreds nationally — out of well over 150 million ballots cast in a typical federal election. That scale is far too small to change any federal election outcome, and no credible investigation has identified an election whose result was altered by non-citizen voting.

Original text

Short answer: No

The extensive body of evidence — from federal agencies, nonpartisan research organizations, and both liberal and conservative-leaning groups — consistently shows that non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections is exceedingly rare and has never been shown to affect an election outcome.

What the evidence shows

It's already illegal, with real deterrents. As of 1924, all states had banned noncitizens from voting in federal elections, and in 1996, Congress added criminal penalties. Noncitizens face up to five years in federal prison for even registering to vote and illegal voting can trigger immigration consequences, including deportation.

Multiple independent studies find only a tiny handful of cases: - After the 2016 election, the Brennan Center for Justice surveyed local election officials in 42 jurisdictions with high immigrant populations and found just 30 cases of suspected noncitizens voting out of 23.5 million votes cast, or 0.0001%. - A Heritage Foundation database of election fraud cases identified just 23 instances of noncitizen voting between 2003 and 2022. A separate Washington Post review of that same database found 85 cases relating to allegations of noncitizens voting between 2002 and 2023. - A state audit after the 2016 election found 41 cases of green card holders who voted out of nearly 4.8 million votes in North Carolina, and an audit in Georgia showed 20 suspected noncitizens on the rolls out of 8.2 million registered voters (0.00024% of the state's list). - In Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% of ballots cast.

Even the government's own recent statement confirms this. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services itself acknowledged in an October 2024 letter that federal law prohibits non-citizens from registering and voting in federal elections, and "the evidence is clear that these laws are working as intended—it is extremely uncommon for noncitizens to vote in Federal elections."

Recent (2025-2026) large-scale enforcement efforts confirm the pattern. Despite an intensive Trump administration crackdown, results remain minuscule relative to the electorate: the Trump administration's whole-of-government effort to find and prosecute noncitizens illegally on state voter rolls has resulted in about 1,600 voter fraud cases that have led to 160 arrests — a tiny fraction of the country's more than 211 million active registered voters. Notably, these numbers fall far short of the hundreds of thousands of noncitizen voters that Trump and DHS had previously suggested were on the rolls.

Even in Texas's high-profile investigation, of 2,724 flagged registered voters, only 117 cases were referred for investigation — out of about 18 million registered voters in the state.

Experts are explicit that outcomes aren't affected. Election law expert David Becker, commenting on the 2025-2026 investigations, said the real numbers are consistently small when potential instances of noncitizen voting are investigated, and he was not aware of a single election whose outcome was altered by noncitizens voting. Similarly, Brennan Center counsel Alice Clapman stated that the data indicates noncitizen voting is not going to sway election outcomes.

Bottom line

Across audits in numerous states, federal databases, nonpartisan research centers, and even a Trump-era enforcement crackdown involving hundreds of federal employees, the documented cases number only in the dozens to low hundreds nationally — out of well over 150 million ballots cast in a typical federal election. That scale is far too small to change any federal election outcome, and no credible investigation has identified an election whose result was altered by non-citizen voting.

English — answer round 2

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Resources on Voter Fraud Claims | Brennan Center for Justice - Why do so few noncitizens try to vote? | Brookings - Claims of Noncitizen Registration or Voting: Analysis and Tracker | The Center for Election Innovation & Research - Claims of Noncitizen Registration or Voting: Analysis and Tracker | The Center for Election Innovation & Research - The Facts About Non-Citizen Voting - Claims of Noncitizen Registration or Voting: Analysis and Tracker | The Center for Election Innovation & Research - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Why do so few noncitizens try to vote? | Brookings - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Jesse Richman (academic) - Jesse Richman (academic) - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts

English translation

Non-Citizen Voting in US Federal Elections: What the Evidence Shows

The overwhelming consensus among election researchers, nonpartisan organizations, and even conservative groups is that non-citizen voting occurs at rates far too small to affect election outcomes—though there is a small body of contested research claiming higher numbers.

The mainstream research consensus

Multiple independent studies and audits point to the same conclusion: non-citizen voting is exceedingly rare.

Even large-scale screening efforts turn up minuscule numbers relative to total voters. An April 2026 USCIS statement revealed that only 0.03% of records run through the agency's SAVE tool merited additional review as possible noncitizens, and subsequent state/local review shrinks these numbers even further. Similarly, a Michigan audit comparing 7.9 million driving records to 7.2 million registered voters identified only 16 individuals who appeared to be noncitizens and had cast a ballot in the 2024 general election.

Nonpartisan analysis has also pushed back on inflated initial claims. A Center for Election Innovation and Research review found that initial claims of large numbers of noncitizen registrants or voters are almost certain to be misleading overestimations of the actual number. Even the largest such claims represent tiny fractions of registered voters—never more than roughly one-tenth of one percent of active registered voters in any state.

Even libertarian and conservative-leaning sources agree: the Cato Institute compiled data from state investigations across the political spectrum and found noncitizen voting is "virtually nonexistent."

Why this is unlikely to change outcomes

Given the margins involved, the math simply doesn't work. Across seven presidential elections, turnout ranged from 105 million (2000) to 158 million (2020) voters—and even if every documented noncitizen in the relevant databases had voted, it would not meaningfully shift outcomes. Structural barriers reinforce this: registering to vote already requires documentary proof, and Social Security records track citizenship status, meaning very few noncitizens even attempt to vote. There are also steep legal deterrents—noncitizens face up to five years in federal prison for even registering to vote, and illegal voting can trigger immigration consequences, including deportation.

The dissenting research

The main contested source of higher estimates comes from Old Dominion University political scientist Jesse Richman. In 2014, Richman published a study extrapolating from Cooperative Congressional Election Study survey data, claiming that 6.4% of noncitizens had voted in 2008 and 2.2% in 2010. However, Richman later admitted in 2017 that his high-end estimates were unrealistic, and the study itself has been widely characterized as discredited by other researchers, largely due to measurement error in self-reported survey citizenship status. A more recent 2023 Richman report and a related "Just Facts" reanalysis have produced figures ranging from roughly 1% to as high as 10–27% of noncitizens being "illegally registered"—a range so inconsistent with his own earlier work that Just Facts itself flagged the "glaring disparity" as prompting scrutiny of the underlying methodology. These figures remain outliers relative to the broader research literature and have not been replicated by election administrators' actual audits.

Bottom line

The weight of evidence—from state audits, federal agency data, academic studies, and even conservative-leaning organizations—indicates that confirmed non-citizen voting involves at most dozens to low hundreds of cases per election cycle nationwide, out of well over 100 million votes cast. That is orders of magnitude too small to have swung any federal election outcome. A minority of researchers (chiefly Richman's earlier extrapolations) have suggested higher rates, but those estimates rely on survey self-report data prone to measurement error and have not been corroborated by actual vote audits or prosecutions.

Original text

Non-Citizen Voting in US Federal Elections: What the Evidence Shows

The overwhelming consensus among election researchers, nonpartisan organizations, and even conservative groups is that non-citizen voting occurs at rates far too small to affect election outcomes—though there is a small body of contested research claiming higher numbers.

The mainstream research consensus

Multiple independent studies and audits point to the same conclusion: non-citizen voting is exceedingly rare.

Even large-scale screening efforts turn up minuscule numbers relative to total voters. An April 2026 USCIS statement revealed that only 0.03% of records run through the agency's SAVE tool merited additional review as possible noncitizens, and subsequent state/local review shrinks these numbers even further. Similarly, a Michigan audit comparing 7.9 million driving records to 7.2 million registered voters identified only 16 individuals who appeared to be noncitizens and had cast a ballot in the 2024 general election.

Nonpartisan analysis has also pushed back on inflated initial claims. A Center for Election Innovation and Research review found that initial claims of large numbers of noncitizen registrants or voters are almost certain to be misleading overestimations of the actual number. Even the largest such claims represent tiny fractions of registered voters—never more than roughly one-tenth of one percent of active registered voters in any state.

Even libertarian and conservative-leaning sources agree: the Cato Institute compiled data from state investigations across the political spectrum and found noncitizen voting is "virtually nonexistent."

Why this is unlikely to change outcomes

Given the margins involved, the math simply doesn't work. Across seven presidential elections, turnout ranged from 105 million (2000) to 158 million (2020) voters—and even if every documented noncitizen in the relevant databases had voted, it would not meaningfully shift outcomes. Structural barriers reinforce this: registering to vote already requires documentary proof, and Social Security records track citizenship status, meaning very few noncitizens even attempt to vote. There are also steep legal deterrents—noncitizens face up to five years in federal prison for even registering to vote, and illegal voting can trigger immigration consequences, including deportation.

The dissenting research

The main contested source of higher estimates comes from Old Dominion University political scientist Jesse Richman. In 2014, Richman published a study extrapolating from Cooperative Congressional Election Study survey data, claiming that 6.4% of noncitizens had voted in 2008 and 2.2% in 2010. However, Richman later admitted in 2017 that his high-end estimates were unrealistic, and the study itself has been widely characterized as discredited by other researchers, largely due to measurement error in self-reported survey citizenship status. A more recent 2023 Richman report and a related "Just Facts" reanalysis have produced figures ranging from roughly 1% to as high as 10–27% of noncitizens being "illegally registered"—a range so inconsistent with his own earlier work that Just Facts itself flagged the "glaring disparity" as prompting scrutiny of the underlying methodology. These figures remain outliers relative to the broader research literature and have not been replicated by election administrators' actual audits.

Bottom line

The weight of evidence—from state audits, federal agency data, academic studies, and even conservative-leaning organizations—indicates that confirmed non-citizen voting involves at most dozens to low hundreds of cases per election cycle nationwide, out of well over 100 million votes cast. That is orders of magnitude too small to have swung any federal election outcome. A minority of researchers (chiefly Richman's earlier extrapolations) have suggested higher rates, but those estimates rely on survey self-report data prone to measurement error and have not been corroborated by actual vote audits or prosecutions.

Spanish — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Non-citizen suffrage in the United States - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting Is Already Illegal — and Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Debate over the prevalence of noncitizens voting - Ballotpedia - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice

English translation

The short answer: No

Available evidence indicates that non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections is virtually nonexistent and has not reached levels capable of changing electoral outcomes.

Why it is so rare

The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 prohibits non-citizens from voting in federal elections, under threat of fines, imprisonment, inadmissibility, and deportation. Additionally, non-citizens face up to five years in federal prison just for registering to vote, and voting illegally can trigger immigration consequences, including deportation.

What studies show

Organizations from across the political spectrum have reached similar conclusions:

An important detail about false positives

Many of the initial figures that generate alarm turn out to be errors. For example, in one use of the SAVE program in Missouri, 35% of the potential non-citizens flagged by the data were actually naturalized citizens at the time they voted. Similar cases occurred in Texas, where in 2019 nearly 100,000 voters were flagged as potential non-citizens, but a federal court blocked the purge because many were naturalized citizens, calling the effort "a solution in search of a problem."

Expert conclusion

There is no evidence that non-citizen voting has ever been significant enough to impact the outcome of an election. Even U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services itself acknowledged in October 2024 that "it is extremely rare for non-citizens to vote in federal elections."

Note on contrary studies: There is a 2014 study (Richman et al.) that suggested higher percentages, but it was widely refuted. Researchers debunked the conclusions of that study, and one of the authors of the original dataset stated that the research was "irresponsible" and "should never have been published." Even the Cato Institute, of a conservative leaning, also rejected that study in 2020.

In summary: while isolated cases and administrative errors exist, the overwhelming evidence from multiple sources—academic, governmental, and think tanks from both sides of the political spectrum—confirms that non-citizen voting is far too rare to alter federal election results.

Original text

La respuesta corta: No

La evidencia disponible indica que el voto de no ciudadanos en elecciones federales de EE. UU. es prácticamente inexistente y no ha llegado a niveles que puedan cambiar resultados electorales.

Por qué es tan raro

La Ley de Reforma de Inmigración Ilegal y Responsabilidad del Inmigrante de 1996 prohíbe a los no ciudadanos votar en elecciones federales, bajo amenaza de multas, prisión, inadmisibilidad y deportación. Además, los no ciudadanos enfrentan hasta cinco años de prisión federal solo por registrarse para votar, y votar ilegalmente puede desencadenar consecuencias migratorias, incluida la deportación.

Lo que muestran los estudios

Organizaciones de todo el espectro político han llegado a conclusiones similares:

Un dato importante sobre falsos positivos

Muchas de las cifras iniciales que generan alarma resultan ser errores. Por ejemplo, en un uso del programa SAVE en Missouri, el 35% de los posibles no ciudadanos marcados por los datos eran en realidad ciudadanos naturalizados en el momento en que votaron. Casos similares ocurrieron en Texas, donde en 2019 se marcaron casi 100,000 votantes como posibles no ciudadanos, pero un tribunal federal bloqueó la purga porque muchos eran ciudadanos naturalizados, llamando al esfuerzo "una solución que busca un problema."

Conclusión de expertos

No hay evidencia de que el voto de no ciudadanos haya sido nunca lo suficientemente significativo como para impactar el resultado de una elección. Incluso el propio Servicio de Ciudadanía e Inmigración de EE. UU. reconoció en octubre de 2024 que "es extremadamente raro que los no ciudadanos voten en elecciones federales."

Nota sobre estudios contrarios: Existe un estudio de 2014 (Richman et al.) que sugirió porcentajes más altos, pero fue ampliamente refutado. Investigadores debunkearon las conclusiones de ese estudio, y uno de los autores del conjunto de datos original afirmó que la investigación era "irresponsable" y "nunca debió haberse publicado." Incluso el Instituto Cato, de tendencia conservadora, también rechazó ese estudio en 2020.

En resumen: mientras existen casos aislados y errores administrativos, la evidencia contundente de múltiples fuentes —académicas, gubernamentales y de think tanks de ambos lados del espectro político— confirma que el voto de no ciudadanos es demasiado raro para alterar resultados de elecciones federales.

Spanish — answer round 2

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting Is Already Illegal — and Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting Is Already Illegal — and Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - Debunking the Myths Surrounding Noncitizen Voting - Democracy Docket

English translation

No, there is no evidence that non-citizen voting is sufficient to change electoral outcomes

The short answer is no: available research consistently indicates that non-citizen voting in federal elections is extremely rare and has no demonstrated impact on electoral outcomes.

Legal framework

It is already illegal for noncitizens to vote. They are prohibited from voting in federal and state elections in all states. Since 1924, all states have banned non-citizen voting in federal elections, and in 1996 Congress added criminal penalties. Noncitizens face up to five years in federal prison just for registering to vote, and voting illegally can lead to immigration consequences, including deportation.

Empirical evidence

Multiple studies and audits agree that the magnitude is negligible:

When it occurs, has it changed any outcome?

In documented cases where non-citizen voting has been confirmed, there is no evidence of an impact on outcomes:

An exception and academic controversy

It is worth mentioning that there is a minority and controversial study that contradicts this consensus: a 2014 study analyzing the 2008 and 2010 elections, conducted by researchers at small universities, found that "some non-citizens participate in U.S. elections, and this participation has been large enough to change significant electoral outcomes, including Electoral College votes and congressional elections," estimating that more than 6% of noncitizens would have voted in the 2008 general election.

However, this study has been widely criticized methodologically by the academic and election-expert community, and contrasts sharply with the empirical evidence from actual state audits and documented court cases cited above, which consistently show numbers orders of magnitude smaller.

Conclusion

The overwhelming consensus of academic studies, state audits, voter fraud databases (including those of conservative organizations), and judicial analyses indicates that non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections occurs in extremely small numbers—on the order of dozens or hundreds of documented cases nationwide over decades—and there is no credible evidence that it has altered the outcome of any federal election.

Original text

No, no hay evidencia de que el voto de no ciudadanos sea suficiente para cambiar resultados electorales

La respuesta corta es no: la investigación disponible indica sistemáticamente que el voto de no ciudadanos en elecciones federales es extremadamente raro y no tiene impacto demostrado en los resultados electorales.

Marco legal

Es ya ilegal que los no ciudadanos voten. Tienen prohibido votar en elecciones federales y estatales en todos los estados. Desde 1924, todos los estados habían prohibido el voto de no ciudadanos en elecciones federales, y en 1996 el Congreso añadió penas criminales. Los no ciudadanos enfrentan hasta cinco años de prisión federal solo por registrarse para votar, y votar ilegalmente puede provocar consecuencias migratorias, incluida la deportación.

Evidencia empírica

Múltiples estudios y auditorías coinciden en que la magnitud es insignificante:

Cuando ocurre, ¿ha cambiado algún resultado?

En los casos documentados donde se ha confirmado voto de no ciudadanos, no hay evidencia de impacto en resultados:

Una excepción y controversia académica

Vale la pena mencionar que existe un estudio minoritario y controvertido que contradice este consenso: un estudio de 2014 que analizó las elecciones de 2008 y 2010, realizado por investigadores de universidades pequeñas, encontró que "algunos no ciudadanos participan en las elecciones de EE.UU., y esta participación ha sido lo suficientemente grande como para cambiar resultados electorales significativos, incluyendo votos del Colegio Electoral y elecciones al Congreso", estimando que más del 6% de los no ciudadanos habría votado en la elección general de 2008.

Sin embargo, este estudio ha sido ampliamente criticado metodológicamente por la comunidad académica y de expertos electorales, y contrasta fuertemente con la evidencia empírica de auditorías estatales reales y casos judiciales documentados citados arriba, que consistentemente muestran números órdenes de magnitud menores.

Conclusión

El consenso abrumador de estudios académicos, auditorías estatales, bases de datos de fraude electoral (incluidas las de organizaciones conservadoras) y análisis judiciales indica que el voto de no ciudadanos en elecciones federales de EE.UU. ocurre en números extremadamente pequeños —del orden de decenas o cientos de casos documentados a nivel nacional en décadas— y no hay evidencia creíble de que haya alterado el resultado de ninguna elección federal.

Russian — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - The Facts About Non-Citizen Voting - Shedding Light on the Incidence of Illegal Noncitizen Voting | Cato at Liberty Blog - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts - Shedding Light on the Incidence of Illegal Noncitizen Voting | Cato at Liberty Blog - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts

English translation

Non-citizen voting in US federal elections

Short answer: no. The overwhelming majority of studies, election commission audits, and court data show that non-citizen voting in US federal elections happens extremely rarely and has never been on a large enough scale to affect the outcome of an election. However, there is a small group of conservative researchers who dispute this consensus—I will discuss both positions.

Legal context

Citizens of other countries are prohibited from voting in US federal or state elections. By 1924, all states had banned non-citizens from voting in federal elections, and in 1996 Congress added criminal sanctions. Non-citizens can face up to five federal prison years even for registering to vote, and illegal voting can entail immigration consequences, including deportation.

Data from audits and investigations

Numerous checks of voter rolls across various states demonstrate extremely low figures:

Judicial data

A 2026 Reuters analysis of non-citizen voting cases brought in federal courts under the 1996 law showed that over the past 30 years, criminal charges had been brought against only 129 people, of whom only 73 were convicted.

Assessment of the scale of impact on results

An analysis of the Heritage Foundation database conducted by the American Immigration Council in 2024 found only 68 confirmed cases of non-citizen voting since 2000, which is less than 0.0001% of the total number of votes. Over the past seven presidential elections, the number of people who voted ranged from 105 million in 2000 to 158 million in 2020.

Organizations studying this topic, including conservative structures, arrive at similar conclusions: illegal voting, including non-citizen voting, is regularly investigated and prosecuted by the appropriate authorities, and there is no evidence that non-citizen voting has ever been significant enough to affect the outcome of an election.

Alternative point of view (disputed)

It is worth noting that there is a small but noticeable minority of researchers who dispute this consensus. According to a study by the Just Facts organization, based on CCES survey data, about 10–27% of non-citizen adults in the US are illegally registered to vote. This estimate traces back to a 2014 article by political scientist Jesse Richman in the journal Electoral Studies.

However, this methodology has been subjected to severe academic criticism. The work by Richman, Chattha, and Earnest (2014) presents a biased estimate of the share of non-citizens who voted in the recent election—the results are entirely explained by a very low-frequency measurement error, and the real share of voting non-citizens in recent US elections is close to zero. In addition, Richman himself in a later 2023 expert report for a lawsuit in Arizona indicated that about 1% of non-citizens are registered to vote—which is radically lower than his own initial 2014 estimate of 25%.

Conclusion

The academic and institutional consensus—including data from election commissions, independent research centers, and even some conservative organizations—agrees that non-citizen voting in US federal elections occurs at the level of a statistical margin of error (a fraction of a percent or even thousandths of a percent) and has never been recorded on a scale capable of altering the outcome of a federal election. Claims about "millions" of voting non-citizens, periodically heard in political rhetoric, are not supported by verifiable data from audits and judicial investigations.

Original text

Голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах в США

Короткий ответ: нет. Подавляющее большинство исследований, аудитов избирательных комиссий и судебных данных показывает, что голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах США происходит крайне редко и никогда не было достаточно масштабным, чтобы повлиять на исход выборов. Однако существует небольшая группа консервативных исследователей, оспаривающих этот консенсус — расскажу об обеих позициях.

Правовой контекст

Гражданам других государств запрещено голосовать на федеральных или штатных выборах в США. К 1924 году все штаты запретили негражданам голосовать на федеральных выборах, а в 1996 году Конгресс добавил уголовные санкции. Неграждане могут получить до пяти лет федеральной тюрьмы даже за регистрацию для голосования, а незаконное голосование может повлечь иммиграционные последствия, включая депортацию.

Данные аудитов и расследований

Многочисленные проверки избирательных списков в разных штатах демонстрируют крайне низкие цифры:

Судебные данные

Анализ Reuters 2026 года по делам о голосовании неграждан, возбуждённым в федеральных судах по закону 1996 года, показал, что за последние 30 лет было выдвинуто уголовное обвинение лишь против 129 человек, из которых только 73 были осуждены.

Оценка масштаба влияния на результаты

Анализ базы данных Heritage Foundation, проведённый American Immigration Council в 2024 году, обнаружил лишь 68 подтверждённых случаев голосования неграждан с 2000 года, что составляет менее 0,0001% от общего числа голосов. За семь прошедших президентских выборов число проголосовавших варьировалось от 105 млн в 2000 году до 158 млн в 2020 году.

Организации, изучающие эту тему, включая консервативные структуры, приходят к схожим выводам: незаконное голосование, включая голосование неграждан, регулярно расследуется и преследуется соответствующими органами, и нет доказательств того, что голосование неграждан когда-либо было настолько значительным, чтобы повлиять на исход выборов.

Альтернативная точка зрения (спорная)

Стоит отметить, что существует небольшое, но заметное меньшинство исследователей, оспаривающих этот консенсус. Согласно исследованию организации Just Facts, основанному на данных опроса CCES, около 10–27% взрослых неграждан в США незаконно зарегистрированы для голосования. Эта оценка восходит к статье 2014 года политолога Джесси Ричмана в журнале Electoral Studies.

Однако эта методология подверглась серьёзной научной критике. Работа Ричмана, Чатты и Эрнеста (2014) представляет смещённую оценку доли неграждан, голосовавших на последних выборах — результаты полностью объясняются очень низкочастотной ошибкой измерения, а реальная доля голосующих неграждан на недавних выборах в США близка к нулю. Кроме того, сам Ричман в более позднем экспертном заключении 2023 года для судебного дела в Аризоне указал, что около 1% неграждан зарегистрированы для голосования — что кардинально ниже его собственной первоначальной оценки 2014 года в 25%.

Вывод

Научный и институциональный консенсус — включая данные избирательных комиссий, независимых исследовательских центров и даже некоторых консервативных организаций — сходится в том, что голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах в США происходит на уровне статистической погрешности (доли процента или даже тысячные доли процента) и никогда не было зафиксировано в масштабах, способных изменить результат федеральных выборов. Заявления о «миллионах» голосующих неграждан, периодически звучащие в политической риторике, не подтверждаются проверяемыми данными аудитов и судебных расследований.

Russian — answer round 2

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting Is Already Illegal — and Vanishingly Rare - Noncitizen Voting Is Already Illegal — and Vanishingly Rare - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Voting and Citizenship | Brennan Center for Justice - Election fact check: Noncitizens can't vote, and instances are 'vanishingly rare' - ABC News - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Election fact check: Noncitizens can't vote, and instances are 'vanishingly rare' - ABC News - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections

English translation

Short answer: no

Non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections is an extremely rare occurrence, and all available data shows that it happens on a scale utterly insufficient to affect the outcome of elections.

Legal Context

Non-citizen voting in federal or state elections in the U.S. is illegal. Since 1924, all states have banned non-citizens from voting in federal elections, and in 1996 Congress added criminal penalties. Non-citizens face up to five years in federal prison simply for registering to vote, and illegal voting can entail immigration consequences, including deportation.

Research Data

Several major studies confirm the extreme rarity of this phenomenon:

  1. Brennan Center Study (2016): in 2017, center staff conducted a detailed study of 42 election jurisdictions in the 2016 election and found that officials overseeing the tabulation of 23.5 million votes referred only about 30 suspected instances of non-citizen voting for further investigation. That is, even suspected—not proven—non-citizen votes accounted for just 0.0001% of all votes cast.

  2. The conservative Heritage Foundation database: identified only 23 instances of non-citizen voting between 2003 and 2022—despite several federal elections with tens of millions of votes having taken place during that time.

  3. Reuters analysis of federal court cases (2026): over the past 30 years under the 1996 federal law, only 129 individuals have ever been criminally charged with "alien voting," and only 73 of these cases resulted in a criminal conviction.

  4. Even comparing maximum estimated figures to the total number of votes: across seven presidential elections during this period, the number of voters ranged from 105 million in 2000 to 158 million in 2020—even if all these non-citizens had voted in a single election, it would amount to less than 0.0001% of the total vote.

Reasons for Rarity

Federal law establishes that only U.S. citizens may vote in federal elections, and states use multiple verification mechanisms, including the requirement under threat of criminal prosecution to confirm citizenship upon registration. As an election law expert noted: "The payoff is casting one vote in one election. It is simply unthinkable that someone who has chosen to move to the U.S. and build a life here would risk their freedom and presence in the country to cast a single vote in a single election."

What Lies Behind Real Cases

When violations are indeed uncovered, they are almost always tied to administrative errors rather than intentional fraud: - a Reuters analysis showed that out of 73 federal convictions for non-citizen voting since 1996, nearly 80% involved lawful permanent residents (green card holders) who often did not understand they were ineligible to vote. - Even in rare high-profile system glitch cases, such as in New Jersey in 2026, where a software glitch in the state's motor vehicle system led to the registration of about 6,600 non-citizens, of whom approximately 400 voted, it has been officially confirmed: there is no evidence that these votes affected the outcome of any election in the state, where over 4 million votes were cast in 2024.

Conclusion

As a Brennan Center expert summarizes: "This is an extremely rare occurrence that has no real impact on the outcome of our elections, and those who actually break the law are held accountable." Claims about mass non-citizen voting ("millions") are not supported by any evidence that undocumented immigrants, green card holders, or immigrants with temporary visas vote in significant numbers—despite the political rhetoric of certain figures.

Original text

Кратко: нет

Голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах США — крайне редкое явление, и все имеющиеся данные показывают, что оно происходит в масштабах, абсолютно недостаточных для влияния на результаты выборов.

Правовой контекст

Голосование неграждан на федеральных или штатных выборах в США незаконно. С 1924 года все штаты запретили негражданам голосовать на федеральных выборах, а в 1996 году Конгресс добавил уголовную ответственность. Негражданам грозит до пяти лет федеральной тюрьмы даже за регистрацию для голосования, а незаконное голосование может повлечь иммиграционные последствия, включая депортацию.

Данные исследований

Несколько крупных исследований подтверждают крайнюю редкость этого явления:

  1. Исследование Brennan Center (2016 г.): в 2017 году сотрудники центра провели детальное исследование 42 избирательных округов на выборах 2016 года и обнаружили, что должностные лица, курировавшие подсчёт 23,5 миллионов голосов, направили на дальнейшее расследование лишь около 30 случаев подозреваемого голосования неграждан. То есть даже подозреваемые — не доказанные — голоса неграждан составили лишь 0,0001% от всех отданных голосов.

  2. База данных консервативного Heritage Foundation: выявила лишь 23 случая голосования неграждан за период с 2003 по 2022 год — при том, что за это время прошло несколько федеральных выборов с десятками миллионов голосов.

  3. Анализ Reuters федеральных судебных дел (2026 г.): за последние 30 лет по федеральному закону 1996 года лишь 129 человек когда-либо были уголовно обвинены за «голосование иностранцев», и только 73 из этих случаев привели к обвинительному приговору.

  4. Даже сравнивая максимальные оценочные цифры с общим числом голосов: в семи президентских выборах за этот период число голосовавших составляло от 105 миллионов в 2000 году до 158 миллионов в 2020 году — даже если бы все эти неграждане проголосовали на одних и тех же выборах, это составило бы менее 0,0001% от общего числа голосов.

Причины редкости

Федеральный закон устанавливает, что только граждане США могут голосовать на федеральных выборах, а штаты используют несколько механизмов проверки, включая требование под угрозой уголовного преследования подтвердить гражданство при регистрации. Как отметил эксперт по избирательному праву: «Выигрыш — это подача одного голоса на одних выборах. Просто немыслимо, что человек, решивший переехать в США и построить здесь жизнь, станет рисковать своей свободой и присутствием в стране, чтобы отдать один голос на одних выборах».

Что стоит за реальными случаями

Когда нарушения всё же выявляются, они почти всегда связаны с административными ошибками, а не с намеренным мошенничеством: - анализ Reuters показал, что из 73 федеральных обвинительных приговоров за голосование неграждан с 1996 года почти 80% касались законных постоянных резидентов (обладателей грин-карт), часто не понимавших, что не имеют права голосовать. - Даже в редких громких случаях сбоев в системе, как в Нью-Джерси в 2026 году, когда программный сбой в системе автотранспорта штата привёл к регистрации около 6600 неграждан, из которых примерно 400 проголосовали, официально подтверждено: нет доказательств того, что эти голоса повлияли на исход каких-либо выборов в штате, где в 2024 году было подано более 4 миллионов голосов.

Вывод

Как резюмирует эксперт Brennan Center: «Это крайне редкое явление, которое никак реально не повлияет на исход наших выборов, а те, кто действительно нарушает закон, привлекаются к ответственности». Утверждения о массовом голосовании неграждан («миллионы») не подтверждаются никакими доказательствами того, что нелегальные иммигранты, обладатели грин-карт или иммигранты с временными визами голосуют в значительных количествах — несмотря на политическую риторику некоторых деятелей.

Chinese — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Unpacking Myths About Noncitizen Voting — How Heritage Foundation’s Own Data Still Proves It’s Not the Problem It’s Made Out to Be - American Immigration Council - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Why do so few noncitizens try to vote? | Brookings - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - The anatomy of a resurging rumor stemming from peer-reviewed research that non-citizens vote in U.S. elections - The anatomy of a resurging rumor stemming from peer-reviewed research that non-citizens vote in U.S. elections - The anatomy of a resurging rumor stemming from peer-reviewed research that non-citizens vote in U.S. elections - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts

English translation

Based on existing research and official data, the vast majority of evidence indicates that the number of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections is extremely minuscule and insufficient to alter any election outcome. However, there is also one controversial study that reached a different conclusion. Here are the details:

Mainstream Research Conclusions: Non-Citizen Voting is Extremely Rare

Specific data shows a negligible proportion: A study of the 2016 election by the Brennan Center for Justice found that across the 42 jurisdictions surveyed, only 0.0001% of the 23.5 million votes were suspected of being cast by non-citizens, with 40 out of the 42 jurisdictions reporting no known instances of non-citizen voting.

Data from conservative think tanks also confirms this: Even the election fraud database compiled by the Heritage Foundation shows that only 23 instances of non-citizen voting were identified from 2003 to 2022. The American Immigration Council noted that across seven presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, the number of voters ranged from 105 million in 2000 to 158 million in 2020; even if all suspected non-citizens had voted in the same election, they would still account for less than 0.0001% of the total votes.

Criminal prosecution cases are extremely few: A 2026 Reuters analysis of non-citizen voting cases brought under the 1996 law found that over the past 30 years, only 129 individuals were criminally charged in federal court for "alien voting," with only 73 of them convicted.

State audit results are consistent: - Ohio: In voter roll checks conducted in 2013 and 2015, the Ohio Secretary of State found that in at least one election since 2000, 44 non-citizens had voted, whereas Ohio had 3.26 million votes in the single year of 2015. Secretary of State Jon Husted told The Columbus Dispatch that none of these affected any election results. - Georgia: Georgia conducted a citizenship audit of its voter rolls. Over 5 million people voted in 2024, and the audit found 20 non-citizens on the rolls, 9 of whom had voted in previous elections.

Formal conclusions from federal agencies: Multiple bipartisan and nonpartisan institutions have explicitly stated that illegal voting (including non-citizen voting) is routinely investigated and prosecuted by relevant authorities, and there is no evidence that the scale of non-citizen voting is sufficient to impact election outcomes. The Center for Election Innovation & Research also concluded: a substantial body of data shows that verified cases of non-citizen voting are extremely rare and statistically insignificant, with a zero impact on any election outcome.

The Minority Disputed Study

Notably, one academic study reached a starkly different conclusion, but it has been widely criticized:

Political scientist Jesse Richman and his co-authors analyzed CES survey data from 2008 and 2010, concluding that 6.4% of non-citizens voted in the 2008 election and 2.2% in the 2010 election, and suggesting that these figures may have significantly impacted the outcome of the 2008 presidential election as well as critical House and Senate seats.

However, this study faced intense criticism from the academic community. Critics pointed out methodological flaws in the study, primarily pointing to measurement error within the survey data—where a tiny error rate of respondents checking the citizenship option gets severely magnified when scaled up to the national population, rendering the results unreliable.

Later, the estimates provided by the primary author of the study in other contexts dropped substantially. Figures presented by Richman in a 2023 report suggested that about 1% of non-citizens registered to vote, which is far lower than the "best" estimate of 25% in his 2014 paper.

Conclusion

Taken together, mainstream, bipartisan official audit data and the majority of academic research consistently show that the scale of non-citizen voting is extremely small (typically between 0.0001% and 0.0002%) and has never been proven sufficient to alter the outcome of any federal election. Although there are isolated academic studies (such as Richman's 2014 paper) that have put forth higher estimates, that study has been widely questioned by academia due to methodological issues, and its conclusions have not been substantiated by subsequent official audits or other independent research.

Original text

根据现有研究和官方数据,绝大多数证据表明非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的数量极其稀少,不足以改变任何选举结果。但也存在一项有争议的研究得出了不同结论。以下是详细情况:

主流研究结论:非公民投票极为罕见

具体数据显示比例微乎其微: 布伦南司法中心对2016年选举的研究发现,在调查的42个司法管辖区中,2350万张选票中只有0.0001%被怀疑是非公民投票,而且42个司法管辖区中有40个报告没有已知的非公民投票事件。

保守派智库的数据也证实这一点: 即便是美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)整理的选举欺诈数据库也显示,从2003年到2022年只发现23起非公民投票事件。美国移民委员会指出,在2000年至2020年的七次总统选举中,投票人数从2000年的1.05亿到2020年的1.58亿不等,即使所有被怀疑的非公民都在同一次选举中投票,占总票数的比例仍不到0.0001%。

刑事起诉案例极少: 2026年路透社对1996年法律下提起的非公民投票案件的分析发现,过去30年中,仅有129人在联邦法院因"外国人投票"被刑事指控,其中只有73人被判有罪。

各州审计结果一致: - 俄亥俄州:2013年和2015年对登记名册的核查中,俄亥俄州州务卿发现自2000年以来至少有一次选举中有44名非公民投票,而俄亥俄州2015年单年就有326万张选票。州务卿约翰·胡斯特德对《哥伦布快报》表示,这些都没有影响任何选举结果。 - 佐治亚州:佐治亚州对选民名册进行了公民身份审计,2024年有超过500万人投票,审计发现名册上有20名非公民,其中9人曾在之前的选举中投过票。

联邦机构的正式结论: 多个跨党派和无党派机构明确表示非法投票(包括非公民投票)一直受到相关部门的常规调查和起诉,没有证据表明非公民投票的规模足以影响选举结果。公平选举中心也总结道:大量数据表明,经核实的非公民投票案例极为罕见且在统计上微不足道,对任何选举结果的影响为零。

存在争议的少数研究

值得注意的是,有一项学术研究得出了截然不同的结论,但受到广泛批评:

政治学家Jesse Richman及其合著者分析了2008年和2010年的CES调查数据,得出结论认为2008年选举中6.4%的非公民投过票,2010年选举中2.2%的非公民投过票,并暗示这些数字可能对2008年总统选举结果以及关键的众议院和参议院席位产生了重大影响。

然而,这项研究受到了学术界的强烈批评。批评者指出该研究的方法存在缺陷,主要问题在于调查数据中的测量误差——受访者在勾选公民身份选项时的微小误差率,在放大到全国人口规模时会被严重夸大,导致结果不可靠。

后来该研究的主要作者本人在其他场合给出的估计也大幅降低。Richman在2023年的一份报告中提出的数字表明约1%的非公民登记投票,这远低于其2014年论文中"最佳"估计的25%。

结论

综合来看,主流、跨党派的官方审计数据和大多数学术研究一致表明,非公民投票的规模极小(通常在0.0001%到0.0002%之间),从未被证实足以改变任何一次联邦选举的结果。虽然存在个别学术研究(如Richman 2014年的论文)提出了更高的估计,但该研究因方法论问题受到学界广泛质疑,且其结论未被后续官方审计或其他独立研究所证实。

Chinese — answer round 2

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Why do so few noncitizens try to vote? | Brookings - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - The Facts About Non-Citizen Voting - Voting By Noncitizens is a Non-Issue - Fair Elections Center - Claims of Noncitizen Registration or Voting: Analysis and Tracker | The Center for Election Innovation & Research - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - ScienceDirect - Noncitizens Don’t Illegally Vote in Detectable Numbers | Cato at Liberty Blog - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts

English translation

Are Non-Citizen Votes Sufficient to Change the Outcome of U.S. Federal Elections?

Based on the vast majority of existing research, state-level audits, and survey evidence, there is no credible evidence that the scale of non-citizen voting is sufficient to change the outcome of U.S. federal elections. The overwhelming majority of mainstream research, nonpartisan institutions, and investigations by state election officials have reached a consistent conclusion: non-citizen voting is extremely rare and does not impact election results.

Conclusions of Mainstream Research and Official Audits

Multiple independent investigations consistently show that the number of non-citizen votes is infinitesimal:

Overall Assessments by Authoritative Institutions

Minority Studies with Contention

It is worth noting that there is one widely contested exception study:

However, the study's methodology has been widely criticized. Institutions such as the Cato Institute pointed out that the survey methodology relied upon by the study was flawed—the authors may have misclassified citizen voters who accidentally self-identified as non-citizens in a large-scale survey as non-citizen voters. Because the survey targeted federal elections, it naturally over-sampled eligible citizens while under-sampling the non-citizen sample. The lead author of the study subsequently scaled down his own estimates significantly: in a 2023 court expert report, Jesse Richman, the primary author of the paper, presented data suggesting that about 1% of non-citizens registered and voted, which is far lower than the 25% "best" estimate in his 2014 paper.

Summary

Taken together, mainstream academia, nonpartisan election research organizations (including conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute, as well as the liberal Brennan Center), and actual audit data from state election officials consistently and strongly indicate that: the scale at which non-citizen voting occurs in U.S. federal elections is extremely minute (typically accounting for 0.01% of total ballots or even less), and existing security measures (such as citizenship oaths upon registration and driver's license registration verification) have effectively prevented large-scale non-citizen voting. Although the controversial 2014 paper put forward different conclusions, its methodology has been re-examined and revised by the academic community and the original author himself. There is no credible evidence supporting the claim that non-citizen voting is sufficient to change the outcome of any U.S. federal election.

Original text

非公民投票是否足以改变美国联邦选举结果?

根据现有的绝大多数研究、州级审计和调查证据,没有可信证据表明非公民投票的规模足以改变美国联邦选举结果。绝大多数主流研究、跨党派机构和州选举官员的调查都得出一致结论:非公民投票极其罕见,不会影响选举结果。

主流研究和官方审计的结论

多项独立调查一致显示非公民投票数量微乎其微:

权威机构的整体评估

存在争议的少数研究

值得注意的是,存在一项引发广泛争议的例外研究:

但该研究方法受到广泛批评。Cato Institute等机构指出,该研究依赖的调查方法存在缺陷——作者可能将在大型调查中意外自称非公民的公民投票者误判为非公民投票者,因为该调查询问约2万人,其中约1.95万人称自己是美国公民,由于该调查针对联邦选举,天然会过度抽样合格公民而低估非公民样本。该研究的主要作者本人后续也大幅下调了估计值——在2023年一份法庭专家报告中,该论文主要作者Jesse Richman提出的数据显示约1%的非公民登记投票,这远低于其2014年论文中25%的"最佳"估计值。

总结

综合来看,主流学术界、跨党派选举研究机构(包括保守派智库Heritage Foundation和Cato Institute,以及自由派机构Brennan Center)以及各州选举官员的实际审计数据高度一致地表明:非公民投票在美国联邦选举中发生的规模极其微小(通常占选票总数的0.01%甚至更低),现有安全措施(如登记时的公民身份宣誓、驾照登记核验等)基本有效地防止了大规模非公民投票。虽然2014年那篇引发争议的论文提出了不同结论,但其方法论已受到学界和原作者本人的重新审视和修正。没有可信证据支持非公民投票足以改变任何美国联邦选举结果的说法。

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Repeated check: one answer round only. The report shows answer round 1.

English — answer round 1

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English translation

Based on the available evidence from academic research, government audits, and investigations across multiple election cycles, the answer is no — non-citizens do not vote in US federal elections in numbers large enough to change election outcomes. Here is a summary of the key evidence.

1. The one study that claimed otherwise has been thoroughly debunked

A 2014 paper by Richman et al. estimated that 6.4% of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2% in 2010, and argued this could have flipped North Carolina's electoral votes and the 2008 Minnesota Senate race. However:

2. Every large-scale audit finds vanishingly small numbers

State / Source Finding Context
Georgia (2024) 20 non-citizens out of 8.2 million registered voters (0.00024%). None voted in 2024. Audit ordered by Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Michigan (2024) 16 instances of non-citizens voting out of ~5.7 million ballots (0.00028%). Statewide audit comparing driver's license records to voter rolls.
Iowa (2024) Initial claim of 2,176 potential non-citizens → revised down to 277 confirmed → 35 who actually voted. After investigation using USCIS SAVE tool and DMV data.
Texas (2024) 33 potential non-citizen voters referred for investigation out of ~11 million votes. Referred by Secretary of State to Attorney General.
Ohio (multi-year) 621 referrals over 10 years → 9 indictments for non-citizen voting. Out of 8 million registered voters and tens of millions of ballots.
Brennan Center (2016) ~30 suspected incidents out of 23.5 million votes surveyed (0.0001%). Survey of 44 election officials in 42 high-immigration jurisdictions.
Heritage Foundation (1999–2023) 77 total instances of non-citizen voting in their nationwide database. Conservative think tank's own compilation.

3. The Census Bureau's 2026 report does not change the picture

A Census Bureau "beginning analysis" found over 24,000 non-citizen voter records in the 2020 election out of ~160 million votes (0.015%). However:

4. Even the most restrictionist estimates show it cannot change outcomes

The Center for Immigration Studies (a group that favors immigration restrictions) calculated what would be needed for non-citizen votes to flip a state in 2024:

All actual evidence shows non-citizen voting rates are far below 1% — and in most states, below 0.1%. The CIS itself concludes these percentages "seem extremely implausible."

5. Why the numbers are so low

Bottom line

Every credible source of evidence — academic re-analyses, state audits, federal investigations, and think tanks across the political spectrum — converges on the same conclusion: Non-citizen voting in US federal elections is extremely rare (well under 0.1% of votes), and there is no evidence that it occurs in numbers large enough to change any election outcome, whether presidential, Senate, or House.

Original text

Based on the available evidence from academic research, government audits, and investigations across multiple election cycles, the answer is no — non-citizens do not vote in US federal elections in numbers large enough to change election outcomes. Here is a summary of the key evidence.

1. The one study that claimed otherwise has been thoroughly debunked

A 2014 paper by Richman et al. estimated that 6.4% of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2% in 2010, and argued this could have flipped North Carolina's electoral votes and the 2008 Minnesota Senate race. However:

2. Every large-scale audit finds vanishingly small numbers

State / Source Finding Context
Georgia (2024) 20 non-citizens out of 8.2 million registered voters (0.00024%). None voted in 2024. Audit ordered by Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Michigan (2024) 16 instances of non-citizens voting out of ~5.7 million ballots (0.00028%). Statewide audit comparing driver's license records to voter rolls.
Iowa (2024) Initial claim of 2,176 potential non-citizens → revised down to 277 confirmed → 35 who actually voted. After investigation using USCIS SAVE tool and DMV data.
Texas (2024) 33 potential non-citizen voters referred for investigation out of ~11 million votes. Referred by Secretary of State to Attorney General.
Ohio (multi-year) 621 referrals over 10 years → 9 indictments for non-citizen voting. Out of 8 million registered voters and tens of millions of ballots.
Brennan Center (2016) ~30 suspected incidents out of 23.5 million votes surveyed (0.0001%). Survey of 44 election officials in 42 high-immigration jurisdictions.
Heritage Foundation (1999–2023) 77 total instances of non-citizen voting in their nationwide database. Conservative think tank's own compilation.

3. The Census Bureau's 2026 report does not change the picture

A Census Bureau "beginning analysis" found over 24,000 non-citizen voter records in the 2020 election out of ~160 million votes (0.015%). However:

4. Even the most restrictionist estimates show it cannot change outcomes

The Center for Immigration Studies (a group that favors immigration restrictions) calculated what would be needed for non-citizen votes to flip a state in 2024:

All actual evidence shows non-citizen voting rates are far below 1% — and in most states, below 0.1%. The CIS itself concludes these percentages "seem extremely implausible."

5. Why the numbers are so low

Bottom line

Every credible source of evidence — academic re-analyses, state audits, federal investigations, and think tanks across the political spectrum — converges on the same conclusion: Non-citizen voting in US federal elections is extremely rare (well under 0.1% of votes), and there is no evidence that it occurs in numbers large enough to change any election outcome, whether presidential, Senate, or House.

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Pages the model opened: - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - Noncitizen voting isn't an issue in federal elections, regardless of conspiracy theories. Here's why | AP News - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election? - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts - https://ww2.odu.edu/~jrichman/NonCitizenVote.pdf - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare - Noncitizen Voting: The Missing Millions | Brennan Center for Justice - Review of Allegations of Noncitizen Registrants and Voters - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant in America. The numbers tell another story. | Reuters

English translation

Do noncitizens vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers sufficient to change outcomes?

The short answer is no. The available evidence—from academic studies, government investigations, electoral data analyses, and judicial prosecutions—shows that noncitizen voting in federal elections is extremely rare and does not occur in magnitudes capable of altering electoral outcomes.

1. Empirical evidence shows it is a marginal phenomenon

🔹 Brennan Center for Justice (2017) A nationwide investigation of 44 election administrators who oversaw 23.5 million votes in 2016 found that only about 30 incidents of potential noncitizen voting were referred for investigation or prosecution. This amounts to 0.0001% of the votes cast in those jurisdictions.
Source: Brennan Center – Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare

🔹 Reuters (2026) An analysis of federal court data found that since 1996, only 129 people have been prosecuted under the federal law prohibiting foreign nationals from voting. In no case was a coordinated effort to influence an election alleged; the majority were administrative errors or misunderstandings.
Source: Reuters – Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant; numbers tell another story

🔹 Election Innovation & Research An analysis of noncitizen registration and voting allegations across several states concludes that even the highest figures never exceed a few tenths of a percentage point of the total eligible voters. Furthermore, initial figures typically drop drastically after a rigorous investigation.
Source: Election Innovation – Review of Allegations of Noncitizen Registrants and Voters

🔹 State audits - North Carolina (2016): after auditing 4.8 million votes, 41 votes cast by legal immigrants who were not yet citizens were found. The state board of elections itself declared that those votes did not alter any election, not even the closest local contest.
Source: AP News

2. The study claiming the opposite was debunked

In 2014, a study by Jesse Richman (Old Dominion University) claimed that 6.4% of noncitizens voted in 2008 and 2.2% in 2010, and that those votes could have changed outcomes (North Carolina in 2008 and Al Franken's Senate election in Minnesota).

However, that study was widely discredited:

Source: Brennan Center – Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare

3. Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) Analysis

The CIS, a center that advocates for reducing immigration, published an analysis in 2024 titled "How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?". Its own conclusions reinforce that it is extremely improbable:

Source: CIS – How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?

4. Why is it so rare?

Conclusion

There is no credible evidence that noncitizens vote in numbers that could influence federal elections. The documented cases are rare, isolated, and generally the result of errors (people who mistakenly believed they had the right to vote). The most rigorous investigations—by the Brennan Center, Reuters, state audits, and academic analyses—agree that the phenomenon is marginal (on the order of 0.0001% to 0.04% of the votes). Even analyses by immigration-restrictionist groups conclude that the turnout rates necessary to alter an outcome are highly improbable and are not supported by real data.

In short: no, noncitizens do not vote in sufficient numbers to change the outcomes of U.S. federal elections.

Original text

¿Votan los no ciudadanos en las elecciones federales de EE. UU. en números suficientes para cambiar resultados?

La respuesta corta es no. La evidencia disponible —de estudios académicos, investigaciones gubernamentales, análisis de datos electorales y procesamientos judiciales— muestra que el voto de no ciudadanos en elecciones federales es extremadamente raro y no ocurre en magnitudes que puedan alterar resultados electorales.

1. La evidencia empírica muestra que es un fenómeno marginal

🔹 Brennan Center for Justice (2017) Una investigación nacional con 44 administradores electorales que supervisaron 23,5 millones de votos en 2016 encontró que solo se remitieron unas 30 incidencias de posible voto de no ciudadanos para investigación o procesamiento. Esto equivale al 0,0001 % de los votos emitidos en esas jurisdicciones.
Fuente: Brennan Center – Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare

🔹 Reuters (2026) Un análisis de los datos judiciales federales halló que, desde 1996, solo 129 personas han sido procesadas bajo la ley federal que prohíbe votar a extranjeros. En ningún caso se alegó un esfuerzo coordinado para influir en una elección; la mayoría fueron errores administrativos o malentendidos.
Fuente: Reuters – Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant; numbers tell another story

🔹 Election Innovation & Research Un análisis de alegaciones de registro y voto de no ciudadanos en varios estados concluye que incluso las cifras más altas nunca superan unas décimas de punto porcentual del total de votantes elegibles. Además, las cifras iniciales suelen reducirse drásticamente tras una investigación rigurosa.
Fuente: Election Innovation – Review of Allegations of Noncitizen Registrants and Voters

🔹 Auditorías estatales - Carolina del Norte (2016): tras auditar 4,8 millones de votos, se encontraron 41 votos emitidos por inmigrantes legales que aún no eran ciudadanos. La propia junta electoral estatal declaró que esos votos no alteraron ninguna elección, ni siquiera la contienda local más reñida.
Fuente: AP News

2. El estudio que afirmaba lo contrario fue refutado

En 2014, un estudio de Jesse Richman (Universidad Old Dominion) afirmó que el 6,4 % de los no ciudadanos votó en 2008 y el 2,2 % en 2010, y que esos votos pudieron haber cambiado resultados (Carolina del Norte en 2008 y la elección al Senado de Al Franken en Minnesota).

Sin embargo, ese estudio fue ampliamente desacreditado:

Fuente: Brennan Center – Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare

3. Análisis del Center for Immigration Studies (CIS)

El CIS, un centro que aboga por reducir la inmigración, publicó un análisis en 2024 titulado «How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?». Sus propias conclusiones refuerzan que es extremadamente improbable:

Fuente: CIS – How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?

4. ¿Por qué es tan raro?

Conclusión

No existe evidencia creíble de que los no ciudadanos voten en números que puedan influir en elecciones federales. Los casos documentados son raros, aislados y generalmente fruto de errores (personas que creían erróneamente tener derecho al voto). Las investigaciones más rigurosas —del Brennan Center, Reuters, auditorías estatales y análisis académicos— coinciden en que el fenómeno es marginal (del orden del 0,0001 % al 0,04 % de los votos). Incluso los análisis de grupos restrictivos en inmigración concluyen que las tasas de participación necesarias para alterar un resultado son altamente improbables y no están respaldadas por datos reales.

En resumen: no, los no ciudadanos no votan en números suficientes para cambiar los resultados de las elecciones federales de EE. UU.

Russian — answer round 1

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English translation

Short answer: No, according to the overwhelming majority of studies, official audits, and expert conclusions, noncitizen voting in U.S. federal elections occurs extremely rarely and has never reached a scale capable of altering the outcomes of nationwide elections.

What the Facts and Studies Show

  1. Illegality and Risks.
    Noncitizen voting in federal elections is a criminal offense punishable by deportation and imprisonment stock. The risk to an individual heavily outweighs any benefit of a single vote, which is why deliberate violations are extremely few.

  2. State Audit Results.
    Long-term voter roll audits across various states show only isolated cases: - Georgia: 139 noncitizen votes over 30 years (since 1992) out of more than 32 million ballots cast. - Ohio: 138 noncitizen votes in 2024 out of 597 potentially illegally registered individuals. - Louisiana: 79 possible noncitizen votes over 40 years (less than 0.0001% of all ballots). - Iowa: following a re-verification, the initial estimate of 2,100 noncitizens dropped to 35 actual voters in 2024.

  3. Nationwide Data.
    - Brennan Center (2016): among 23.5 million ballots across 42 jurisdictions, only 30 cases of suspected noncitizen voting were found. - Heritage Foundation (conservative think tank): over 20 years (2002–2023), only 85 documented cases of noncitizen voting nationwide. - Bipartisan Policy Center: for 1999–2023 — 77 cases; conclusion: "no evidence that noncitizen voting has ever been significant enough to impact the outcome of an election."

  4. Census Bureau Report (2026).
    It mentions "more than 24,000 records with a high probability of representing noncitizens" in the 2020 election. However: - This represents only 0.015% of the 158 million votes cast. - Even if all 24,000 of these votes had been cast for a single candidate, they would not have changed the outcome in any state (Biden's margin was 7 million votes). - Experts (including the director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research) pointed to a high probability of false matches in the report's methodology and emphasized that the figures are "too small to impact the outcome."

  5. 2014 Study (Richman et al.).
    The single paper claiming that noncitizen votes could have altered the 2008 election results was discredited by the academic community: - The authors of the survey itself (CCES) published a rebuttal, showing that the findings were explained by measurement errors (citizens accidentally identifying as noncitizens). - More than 200 political scientists signed an open letter urging that this work not be used in debates about voter fraud.

  6. Mathematical Impossibility.
    Even if all noncitizens (about 23 million adults) wanted to vote, changing the outcome in key swing states would require unrealistically high turnout (for example, in Georgia, 7–8% of noncitizens would have had to vote strictly for a single candidate, which is not supported by any data).

Conclusion

All available data—from state audits, nonpartisan research centers, and academic works—agree on one thing: noncitizen voting in U.S. federal elections is an exceptionally rare phenomenon and has never been widespread enough to alter the outcomes of presidential or congressional elections. Claims to the contrary are not supported by facts and are based either on flawed methodology or the extrapolation of isolated incidents.

Original text

Краткий ответ: Нет, согласно подавляющему большинству исследований, официальных проверок и заключений экспертов, голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах в США происходит крайне редко и никогда не достигало масштабов, способных изменить результаты общенациональных выборов.

Что говорят факты и исследования

  1. Незаконность и риски.
    Голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах является уголовным преступлением, которое грозит депортацией и тюремным сроком. Риск для отдельного человека многократно превышает любую выгоду от одного голоса, поэтому сознательных нарушений крайне мало.

  2. Результаты проверок в штатах.
    Многолетние аудиты избирательных списков в разных штатах показывают лишь единичные случаи: - Джорджия: 139 голосов неграждан за 30 лет (с 1992 г.) при более чем 32 млн поданных бюллетеней. - Огайо: 138 голосов неграждан в 2024 г. из 597 потенциально нелегально зарегистрированных. - Луизиана: 79 возможных голосов неграждан за 40 лет (менее 0,0001% от всех бюллетеней). - Айова: после перепроверки первоначальная оценка в 2100 неграждан снизилась до 35 реально проголосовавших в 2024 г.

  3. Общенациональные данные.
    - Brennan Center (2016): среди 23,5 млн бюллетеней в 42 юрисдикциях обнаружено лишь 30 случаев подозрительного голосования неграждан. - Heritage Foundation (консервативный think tank): за 20 лет (2002–2023) задокументировано всего 85 случаев голосования неграждан по всей стране. - Bipartisan Policy Center: за 1999–2023 гг. — 77 случаев; вывод: «нет доказательств, что голосование неграждан когда-либо было достаточно значимым, чтобы повлиять на исход выборов».

  4. Отчёт Бюро переписи населения (2026).
    В нём говорится о «более 24 000 записей, с высокой вероятностью представляющих неграждан» на выборах 2020 г. Однако: - Это лишь 0,015% от 158 млн поданных голосов. - Даже если бы все эти 24 000 голосов были отданы за одного кандидата, они не изменили бы результат ни в одном штате (перевес Байдена составил 7 млн голосов). - Эксперты (включая директора Center for Election Innovation & Research) указали на высокую вероятность ложных совпадений в методике отчёта и подчеркнули, что цифры «слишком малы, чтобы повлиять на исход».

  5. Исследование 2014 года (Richman et al.).
    Единственная работа, утверждавшая, что голоса неграждан могли изменить результаты выборов 2008 г., была дискредитирована научным сообществом: - Авторы самого опроса (CCES) опубликовали опровержение, показав, что выводы объясняются ошибками измерения (граждане случайно указывали себя негражданами). - Более 200 политологов подписали открытое письмо с призывом не использовать эту работу в дебатах о фальсификациях.

  6. Математическая невозможность.
    Даже если бы все неграждане (около 23 млн взрослых) захотели проголосовать, для изменения результата в ключевых колеблющихся штатах потребовалась бы нереалистично высокая явка (например, в Джорджии — 7–8% неграждан должны были бы проголосовать строго за одного кандидата, что не подтверждается никакими данными).

Вывод

Все доступные данные — от государственных аудитов, непартийных исследовательских центров и академических работ — сходятся в одном: голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах в США является исключительно редким явлением и никогда не было достаточно массовым, чтобы изменить результаты президентских или парламентских выборов. Утверждения об обратном не подтверждаются фактами и основаны либо на ошибочной методологии, либо на экстраполяции единичных случаев.

Chinese — answer round 1

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English translation

This is a highly controversial topic in the United States. Simply put, according to the most reliable research and official data, the absolute number of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections is extremely small and far from sufficient to change the final outcome of a presidential election or most congressional elections. Although some studies claim a massive scale of non-citizen voting, their methodologies are subject to serious controversy and have not been accepted by mainstream academic and election security experts.

Below is a detailed analysis based on the available evidence:

1. Conclusions of Official and Mainstream Research: Extremely Small Number, Unable to Change Outcomes

2. Studies Claiming "Non-Citizen Voting is Sufficient to Change Outcomes" and Their Controversies

Conclusion

Type of Evidence Core Findings Impact on Election Results
Official Data (Census Bureau) Preliminarily identified approximately 24,000 suspected non-citizen voting incidents (0.019%). No impact. The magnitude is far smaller than the winning margin in any key state.
Law Enforcement Data (Federal Prosecutions) Only 129 individuals prosecuted in nearly 30 years. No impact. Proves the behavior is extremely rare and non-organized.
Mainstream Academia and Audits Repeatedly confirms that non-citizen voting is "extremely rare." No impact.
Controversial Studies (e.g., Just Facts) Claims hundreds of thousands of illegal votes existed. Methodology widely refuted, conclusions not accepted by the mainstream.

In summary: While any illegal voting is unacceptable, and theoretically in extremely close elections a very small number of illegal votes could have an impact, all reliable empirical evidence shows that the scale of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections is minuscule, and has never reached—nor is it anywhere near sufficient—to alter the final outcome of any presidential or congressional election. Allegations of mass non-citizen voting stem more from reliance on flawed research methodologies or political propaganda than from facts.

Original text

这是一个在美国极具争议性的话题。简单来说，根据目前最可靠的研究和官方数据，非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的绝对人数非常少，远不足以改变总统选举或大多数国会选举的最终结果。 尽管存在一些声称非公民投票规模巨大的研究，但这些研究的方法论存在严重争议，并未被主流学术和选举安全专家所接受。

以下是基于现有证据的详细分析：

1. 官方与主流研究的结论：数量极少，无法改变结果

2. 声称“非公民投票足以改变结果”的研究及其争议

结论

证据类型 核心发现 对选举结果的影响
官方数据（人口普查局） 初步识别出约24,000起疑似非公民投票事件（占0.019%）。 无影响。数量级远小于任何关键州的胜选差距。
执法数据（联邦起诉） 近30年仅起诉129人。 无影响。证明该行为极为罕见且非组织性。
主流学术与审计 反复确认非公民投票“极其罕见”。 无影响。
争议性研究（Just Facts等） 声称存在数十万张非法选票。 方法论被广泛否定，其结论不被主流认可。

总结来说： 虽然任何非法投票都是不可接受的，且理论上在极端接近的选举中，极少数非法选票可能产生影响，但所有可靠的实证证据均表明，非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的规模极小，从未达到、也远不足以改变任何一次总统或国会选举的最终结果。 关于非公民大规模投票的指控，更多是源于对错误研究方法的依赖或政治宣传，而非事实。

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Repeated check: one answer round only. The report shows answer round 1.

English — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - fairelectionscenter.org - cato.org - ballotpedia.org - americanimmigrationcouncil.org - votingrightslab.org - electioninnovation.org - facebook.com

English translation

No. Comprehensive audits, academic studies, and investigations by state and federal election officials have consistently found that non-citizens do not vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to alter or determine election outcomes. Verified cases of non-citizens casting ballots are vanishingly rare—amounting to a tiny fraction of a percent of all votes cast.

1. The Legal Framework and Disincentives Under the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, it is a federal crime for non-citizens to register or vote in federal elections (18 U.S.C. § 611). The personal risks far outweigh the benefit of casting a single ballot: * Non-citizens who vote face felony charges, substantial fines, and imprisonment. * Unlawful voting leads to mandatory deportation and creates a permanent legal bar to ever obtaining lawful status or U.S. citizenship.

2. Findings from Official Audits and Studies Multiple investigations conducted across both Democratic- and Republican-led states have repeatedly analyzed voter rolls and post-election records:

3. What Causes the Few Cases That Do Occur? When investigations do confirm instances of non-citizens registering or casting ballots, they almost never involve intentional, coordinated fraud. Rather, researchers and prosecutors find: * Administrative Confusion: Many individuals involved are Lawful Permanent Residents (green card holders) who mistakenly assumed they were eligible or were inadvertently prompted to register at motor vehicle departments (DMVs) through automated "Motor Voter" systems. * Clerical Errors: State databases frequently produce false positives when matching voter rolls against old immigration or DMV records, erroneously flagging people who naturalized and became legal citizens before casting their votes.

4. Where Do Claims of Widespread Non-Citizen Voting Come From? The claim that millions of non-citizens vote often stems from political rhetoric and a widely criticized 2014 survey study (Richman et al.).

That study claimed that significant numbers of non-citizens participated in the 2008 election. However, the survey's original designers at Harvard University, along with a peer-reviewed rebuttal published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), demonstrated that the finding was the result of a known statistical artifact: survey respondents accidentally mischecking the "non-citizen" box when they were actually citizens (measurement error). When researchers re-interviewed respondents, the apparent non-citizen voting population dropped to zero.

Bottom Line Federal races are often decided by thousands or tens of thousands of votes, while verified non-citizen voting incidents are documented in the single or double digits in any given state. While the issue remains a prominent political talking point, there is no empirical evidence that non-citizen voting occurs at a scale capable of influencing the outcome of U.S. federal elections.

Original text

No. Comprehensive audits, academic studies, and investigations by state and federal election officials have consistently found that non-citizens do not vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to alter or determine election outcomes. Verified cases of non-citizens casting ballots are vanishingly rare—amounting to a tiny fraction of a percent of all votes cast.

1. The Legal Framework and Disincentives Under the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, it is a federal crime for non-citizens to register or vote in federal elections (18 U.S.C. § 611). The personal risks far outweigh the benefit of casting a single ballot: * Non-citizens who vote face felony charges, substantial fines, and imprisonment. * Unlawful voting leads to mandatory deportation and creates a permanent legal bar to ever obtaining lawful status or U.S. citizenship.

2. Findings from Official Audits and Studies Multiple investigations conducted across both Democratic- and Republican-led states have repeatedly analyzed voter rolls and post-election records:

3. What Causes the Few Cases That Do Occur? When investigations do confirm instances of non-citizens registering or casting ballots, they almost never involve intentional, coordinated fraud. Rather, researchers and prosecutors find: * Administrative Confusion: Many individuals involved are Lawful Permanent Residents (green card holders) who mistakenly assumed they were eligible or were inadvertently prompted to register at motor vehicle departments (DMVs) through automated "Motor Voter" systems. * Clerical Errors: State databases frequently produce false positives when matching voter rolls against old immigration or DMV records, erroneously flagging people who naturalized and became legal citizens before casting their votes.

4. Where Do Claims of Widespread Non-Citizen Voting Come From? The claim that millions of non-citizens vote often stems from political rhetoric and a widely criticized 2014 survey study (Richman et al.).

That study claimed that significant numbers of non-citizens participated in the 2008 election. However, the survey's original designers at Harvard University, along with a peer-reviewed rebuttal published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), demonstrated that the finding was the result of a known statistical artifact: survey respondents accidentally mischecking the "non-citizen" box when they were actually citizens (measurement error). When researchers re-interviewed respondents, the apparent non-citizen voting population dropped to zero.

Bottom Line Federal races are often decided by thousands or tens of thousands of votes, while verified non-citizen voting incidents are documented in the single or double digits in any given state. While the issue remains a prominent political talking point, there is no empirical evidence that non-citizen voting occurs at a scale capable of influencing the outcome of U.S. federal elections.

Spanish — answer round 1

Web access: Available; no search recorded

English translation

No. Accumulated evidence over decades by official state audits, academic research, bipartisan electoral bodies, and think tanks from diverse political currents overwhelmingly concludes that voting by non-citizens in U.S. federal elections is an extremely rare and statistically insignificant phenomenon, incapable of altering electoral outcomes.

The key points that explain this reality are:

1. Legal framework and disproportionate consequences * Express prohibition: Since 1996, the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (18 U.S. Code § 611) makes it a federal crime for non-citizens to vote in elections for federal office (president, senators, or representatives). * Severe punishments: Attempting to register or vote as a non-citizen carries prison terms, heavy financial fines, immediate deportation, and permanent disqualification from obtaining legal residency or U.S. citizenship. For a non-citizen (whether undocumented or a Green Card holder), the personal cost of casting a single vote far outweighs any motivation to do so.

2. Results of official audits and investigations Various audits in states governed by both Republicans and Democrats have analyzed millions of votes without finding significant patterns of non-citizen voting:

3. Filters and verification mechanisms The U.S. electoral system features controls that make improper registration extremely difficult: * When registering to vote, individuals must declare under oath and penalty of perjury that they are U.S. citizens. * The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) requires states to verify voter data by cross-checking it against state driver's license databases and the Social Security Administration. * States periodically purge their voter rolls by cross-referencing information with immigration agencies and vital records.

Conclusion While it is not mathematically zero—isolated incidents do exist, almost always caused by administrative misunderstandings or a lack of knowledge of the law—there is no documentary or factual evidence that non-citizens vote in sufficient numbers to influence the outcome of any federal election in the United States.

Original text

No. La evidencia acumulada a lo largo de décadas por auditorías estatales oficiales, investigaciones académicas, organismos electorales bipartidistas y centros de estudio de diversas corrientes políticas concluye de manera contundente que el voto de personas no ciudadanas en elecciones federales de Estados Unidos es un fenómeno extremadamente raro y estadísticamente insignificante, incapaz de alterar los resultados electorales.

Los puntos clave que explican esta realidad son:

1. Marco legal y consecuencias desproporcionadas * Prohibición expresa: Desde 1996, la Ley de Reforma de la Inmigración Ilegal y Responsabilidad de los Inmigrantes (18 U.S. Code § 611) tipifica como delito federal que los no ciudadanos voten en elecciones para cargos federales (presidente, senadores o representantes). * Castigos severos: Intentar registrarse o votar siendo no ciudadano conlleva penas de prisión, multas económicas elevadas, la deportación inmediata y la inhabilitación permanente para obtener la residencia legal o la ciudadanía estadounidense. Para un no ciudadano (sea indocumentado o titular de una tarjeta verde/Green Card), el costo personal de emitir un solo voto supera por mucho cualquier motivación para hacerlo.

2. Resultados de auditorías oficiales e investigaciones Diversas auditorías en estados gobernados tanto por republicanos como por demócratas han analizado millones de votos sin encontrar patrones significativos de voto no ciudadano:

3. Filtros y mecanismos de verificación El sistema electoral de EE. UU. cuenta con controles que dificultan enormemente el registro indebido: * Al registrarse para votar, la persona debe declarar bajo juramento y pena de perjurio que es ciudadana estadounidense. * La Ley para Ayudar a América a Votar (HAVA, por sus siglas en inglés) exige que los estados verifiquen los datos de los votantes cotejándolos con las bases de datos de licencias de conducir estatales y con la Administración del Seguro Social. * Los estados realizan depuraciones periódicas de sus padrones electorales cruzando información con agencias de inmigración y registros civiles.

Conclusión Si bien no es matemáticamente nulo —existen incidentes aislados, casi siempre provocados por malentendidos administrativos o falta de conocimiento de la ley—, no existe prueba documental ni fáctica de que los no ciudadanos voten en números suficientes para influir en el desenlace de ninguna elección federal en los Estados Unidos.

Russian — answer round 1

Web access: Available; no search recorded

English translation

According to numerous audits, studies, and official reports from election commissions of both U.S. political camps, noncitizens do not vote in numbers capable of influencing the outcomes of federal elections. Instances of noncitizens voting in practice are extremely rare and of an isolated nature.

1. Legislation and Risks for Violators U.S. federal law (the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996) explicitly prohibits noncitizens from participating in the elections of the president, senators, and members of the House of Representatives.

For a noncitizen (whether an undocumented migrant, a green card holder, or a work visa holder), an attempt to vote entails catastrophic consequences: * up to a year of imprisonment and hefty fines; * deportation from the country; * a lifetime ban on obtaining U.S. citizenship and lawful permanent resident status.

Since an individual vote does not provide a person with direct personal gain, experts and law enforcement note the lack of a rational incentive to risk deportation for the sake of participating in voting.

2. Results of Checks and Audits Checks conducted by both independent research institutes and government officials (including representatives of the Republican Party) regularly show a negligibly small percentage of such violations:

The majority of rare cases of noncitizen participation are linked not to malicious falsification schemes, but to administrative confusion — for example, when people automatically checked the box for voter registration while obtaining a driver's license at the DMV (the Motor Voter system), mistakenly believing they had the right to do so.

3. How Protection Against Noncitizen Voting Works * Declaration under oath: during registration, a voter is required to confirm in writing, under threat of criminal liability for perjury, that they are a U.S. citizen. * Database cross-matching: voter rolls are regularly checked against the databases of the Social Security Administration (SSA), Departments of Motor Vehicles (DMV), and the federal immigration database Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE). * Voter lists at polling stations: voting is possible only through prior registration in a specific precinct; showing up without being on the registration lists and receiving a standard ballot is impossible.

4. Why This Issue Causes Political Debate Despite the lack of empirical evidence of mass voting, this topic remains a subject of sharp debate in the U.S.: * Proponents of stricter rules (including the authors of the SAVE Act bill) argue that due to the lack of a requirement to present a passport or birth certificate directly upon registration, loopholes theoretically remain, and trust in elections requires

Original text

Согласно многочисленным аудитам, исследованиям и официальным отчетам избирательных комиссий обоих политических лагерей США, неграждане не голосуют в количествах, способных повлиять на результаты федеральных выборов. Случаи голосования лиц без гражданства на практике чрезвычайно редки и носят единичный характер.

1. Законодательство и риски для нарушителей Федеральный закон США (Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act 1996 года) прямо запрещает негражданам участвовать в выборах президента, сенаторов и членов Палаты представителей.

Для негражданина (как нелегального мигранта, так и обладателя грин-карты или рабочей визы) попытка проголосовать влечет катастрофические последствия: * до года тюремного заключения и крупные штрафы; * депортацию из страны; * пожизненный запрет на получение гражданства США и законного статуса постоянного жителя.

Поскольку отдельный голос не дает человеку прямой личной выгоды, эксперты и правоохранители отмечают отсутствие рационального стимула рисковать депортацией ради участия в голосовании.

2. Результаты проверок и аудитов Проверки, проводившиеся как независимыми исследовательскими институтами, так и государственными чиновниками (включая представителей Республиканской партии), регулярно показывают ничтожно малый процент таких нарушений:

Большинство редких случаев участия неграждан связаны не со злонамеренными схемами фальсификации, а с административной путаницей — например, когда люди автоматически отмечали пункт о регистрации избирателя при оформлении водительских прав в DMV (система Motor Voter), ошибочно полагая, что имеют на это право.

3. Как устроена защита от голосования неграждан * Декларация под присягой: при регистрации избиратель обязан письменно подтвердить под угрозой уголовной ответственности за лжесвидетельство (perjury), что является гражданином США. * Сверка баз данных: списки избирателей регулярно сверяются с базами данных Управления социального обеспечения (SSA), Департаментов транспортных средств (DMV) и федеральной миграционной базой Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE). * Списки избирателей на участках: проголосовать можно только по предварительной регистрации в конкретном округе; явиться без регистрации в списках и получить стандартный бюллетень невозможно.

4. Почему этот вопрос вызывает политические споры Несмотря на отсутствие эмпирических подтверждений массового голосования, эта тема остается предметом острых дебатов в США: * Сторонники ужесточения правил (включая авторов законопроекта SAVE Act) утверждают, что из-за отсутствия требования предъявлять паспорт или свидетельство о рождении непосредственно при регистрации лазейки теоретически сохраняются, а доверие к выборам требует

Chinese — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - fairelectionscenter.org - cato.org - americanimmigrationcouncil.org

English translation

According to official audits by various levels of government in the United States, investigations by bipartisan election officials, and extensive research by cross-ideological academic think tanks (including conservative, libertarian, and liberal institutions), the phenomenon of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections is extremely rare, its numbers are statistically nearly negligible, and it is fundamentally insufficient to alter the outcome of any federal election.

Below are the core facts, mechanisms, and data analysis supporting this conclusion:

1. Extremely High Legal Costs and Deterrence In the United States, non-citizen participation in federal elections carries exceptionally severe legal consequences: * Explicit Legal Prohibition: According to the federal Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (18 U.S.C. § 611), it is a federal felony for non-U.S. citizens to vote in federal elections (President, Senator, Representative, etc.). * Devastating Penalties: Once discovered voting illegally or falsely claiming to be a citizen, non-citizens face heavy fines, imprisonment, and will be immediately deported and permanently barred from obtaining a green card or naturalization. * Lack of Incentive: For lawful residents (green card or work visa holders) or undocumented immigrants, taking the huge risk of losing legal status, facing deportation, and breaking up their families to cast a ballot that cannot directly benefit them personally is completely illogical in terms of rational behavior.

2. Empirical Data from Bipartisan and Official Audits Whether through federal agencies or state governments (including states under long-term Republican governance), successive comprehensive audits of voter rolls have proven that this phenomenon is extremely scarce:

3. Why Is There a Claim That "Large Numbers of Non-Citizens Changed the Outcome"? The narrative regarding "large-scale voting by non-citizens" primarily stems from the following two aspects:

  1. Early Erroneous Research Already Falsified by Academia: * In 2014, scholar Jesse Richman and others published a paper speculating that hundreds of thousands to over a million non-citizens may have voted. * This paper was subsequently proven by Harvard University and other mainstream political science statistical teams to contain severe "Measurement Error": the data used in the paper came from public opinion polling questionnaires (CCES). Within the sample, as long as a tiny fraction of surveyed U.S. citizens incorrectly checked the "non-citizen" option on the questionnaire due to a slip of the hand or misunderstanding, the statistical model would magnify this to the national population, generating the false inference that "tens of thousands of non-citizens voted." The methodology of this paper has been widely rejected by the academic community.
  2. Political Mobilization and Election Dispute Narratives: * During tightly contested election cycles, claiming that "massive illegal ballots exist" is frequently used by certain political factions as political rhetoric to galvanize voter enthusiasm, question the legitimacy of unfavorable outcomes, or push for stricter voter registration bills (such as requiring proof of citizenship like birth certificates or passports).

Conclusion Although there are occasional, isolated individual cases of non-citizens violating rules due to administrative errors, misunderstandings of information, or oversight, there is no credible evidence indicating that non-citizens vote in an organized or scaled manner in U.S. federal elections, and their numbers fall far short of being able to swing the outcome of any federal election.

Original text

根据美国各级政府的官方审计、两党选举官员的调查以及跨意识形态学术智库（包括保守派、自由意志主义和自由派机构）的大量研究，非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的现象极其罕见，其人数在统计学上近乎微乎其微，根本不足以改变任何联邦选举的结果。

以下是支持这一结论的核心事实、机制与数据分析：

1. 极高的法律代价与威慑力 在美国，非公民参与联邦选举具有极其严厉的法律后果： * 法律明文禁止：根据1996年通过的联邦《非法移民改革和移民责任法案》（18 U.S.C. § 611），非美国公民在联邦选举（总统、参议员、众议员等）中投票属于联邦刑事重罪。 * 毁灭性惩罚：非公民一旦被发现非法投票或虚假声明自己是公民，将面临高额罚金、监禁，并且会被立即驱逐出境、永久取消获得绿卡或入籍的资格。 * 缺乏动机：对于合法居留者（绿卡、工签持有者）或无证移民而言，冒着失去合法身份、被驱逐和家庭破碎的巨大风险去投一张无法直接给个人带来利益的选票，在理性行为上完全不合逻辑。

2. 跨党派与官方审计的实证数据 无论是联邦机构还是各州政府（包括共和党长期执政的州），历次对选民名单的全面排查都证明该现象极其稀少：

3. 为什么会有“大量非公民改变结果”的说法？ 关于“非公民大规模投票”的叙事，主要来自以下两方面：

  1. 已被学术界证伪的早期错误研究： * 2014年，学者 Jesse Richman 等人发表过一篇论文，推测有数十万至上百万非公民可能投了票。 * 该论文随后被哈佛大学及其他主流政治学统计团队证实存在严重的“测量误差”（Measurement Error）：论文使用的数据来自公开民调问卷（CCES），在样本中，只要极少数受访的美国公民由于手滑或误解在问卷上错误勾选了“非公民”选项，统计模型将其放大到全国人口后，就会产生“有成千上万非公民投票”的虚假推论。该论文的方法论已普遍被学术界驳斥。
  2. 政治动员与选举争议叙事： * 在选情胶着的选举周期中，宣称“存在大量非法选票”常被部分政治阵营用作激发选民投票热情、质疑不利结果合法性，或推动更严格选民登记法案（如要求提供出生纸或护照等公民证明）的政治修辞。

总结 尽管偶有极个别因行政失误、信息误解或疏忽导致的非公民违规个案，但没有任何可信的证据表明非公民在美国联邦选举中有组织或成规模地进行投票，其数量远不足以左右任何联邦选举的胜负结果。

Mistral Medium 3.5

Repeated check: found in 3 of 3 answer rounds. The report shows answer round 1.

Evidence used for the finding

English — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives - Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant in America. The numbers tell another story. | Reuters - A Valid Analysis of a Small Subsample: The Case of Non-Citizen Registration and Voting

English translation

Based on the most robust and recent evidence, there is no credible evidence that non-citizens vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to change election outcomes.

In summary, while isolated cases of non-citizen voting do occur, the available evidence shows it is not widespread and does not reach the scale required to change U.S. federal election outcomes.

Original text

Based on the most robust and recent evidence, there is no credible evidence that non-citizens vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to change election outcomes.

In summary, while isolated cases of non-citizen voting do occur, the available evidence shows it is not widespread and does not reach the scale required to change U.S. federal election outcomes.

English — answer round 2

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant in America. The numbers tell another story. | Reuters - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?

English translation

Based on the most current and authoritative evidence, non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections does occur, but it is extremely rare and not at a scale large enough to change election outcomes.

In summary: Non-citizens do sometimes vote, but the numbers are too small to swing federal elections.

Original text

Based on the most current and authoritative evidence, non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections does occur, but it is extremely rare and not at a scale large enough to change election outcomes.

In summary: Non-citizens do sometimes vote, but the numbers are too small to swing federal elections.

English — answer round 3

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant in America. The numbers tell another story. | Reuters - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?

English translation

Based on the most current and authoritative evidence, there is no credible evidence that non-citizens vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to change election outcomes.

A 2026 Reuters investigation found that federal prosecutors have charged only 129 people under the federal “voting by aliens” statute since 1996, with more than two-thirds of those cases occurring during the Trump administration. Importantly, none of these cases involved a coordinated effort to influence an election, and election officials from both parties stated that non-citizen voting is so rare that it has no significant impact on election results. One Republican election official with 15 years of experience noted, “All evidence suggests that it occurs extremely infrequently” .

While some older studies, such as a 2014 analysis published in Electoral Studies, suggested that non-citizen voting might have been large enough to influence certain outcomes, these claims have been widely disputed and are not supported by more recent, rigorous data. The Census Bureau’s beginning analysis of the 2020 election, for example, identified only about 24,000 voter records as belonging to non-citizens out of nearly 160 million ballots cast, with over 32 million records still under review. This scale is far too small to affect national outcomes .

In summary, while isolated incidents of non-citizen voting do occur, the available evidence indicates that such cases are extremely rare and have not been shown to influence U.S. federal election results.

Original text

Based on the most current and authoritative evidence, there is no credible evidence that non-citizens vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to change election outcomes.

A 2026 Reuters investigation found that federal prosecutors have charged only 129 people under the federal “voting by aliens” statute since 1996, with more than two-thirds of those cases occurring during the Trump administration. Importantly, none of these cases involved a coordinated effort to influence an election, and election officials from both parties stated that non-citizen voting is so rare that it has no significant impact on election results. One Republican election official with 15 years of experience noted, “All evidence suggests that it occurs extremely infrequently” .

While some older studies, such as a 2014 analysis published in Electoral Studies, suggested that non-citizen voting might have been large enough to influence certain outcomes, these claims have been widely disputed and are not supported by more recent, rigorous data. The Census Bureau’s beginning analysis of the 2020 election, for example, identified only about 24,000 voter records as belonging to non-citizens out of nearly 160 million ballots cast, with over 32 million records still under review. This scale is far too small to affect national outcomes .

In summary, while isolated incidents of non-citizen voting do occur, the available evidence indicates that such cases are extremely rare and have not been shown to influence U.S. federal election results.

Spanish — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - El voto no ciudadano es ilegal | Brennan Center for Justice - Requisitos para votar en Estados Unidos: quién puede y ... - Está prohibido y no cuenta el voto de no ciudadanos en las elecciones federales de EEUU | Factual - ¿Los inmigrantes recién llegados pueden votar por Kamala Harris o Donald Trump? No, eso es falso – PolitiFact - Votar como nuevo ciudadano de Estados Unidos

English translation

No, non-citizens do not vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to change electoral outcomes. Under federal law, it is strictly prohibited for non-citizen individuals to vote in federal elections, and cases of non-citizen voting are extremely rare. Research conducted by state officials, universities, media outlets, and police departments has confirmed that non-citizen voting is a very infrequent phenomenon and has no impact on election results.

Additionally, the electoral system features multiple controls to prevent ineligible individuals from registering or voting, such as citizenship verification during registration, periodic maintenance of voter rolls, and the removal of ineligible individuals. Non-citizens who attempt to vote face severe penalties, such as fines, imprisonment, or deportation, and their provisional ballots are discarded during the canvassing process if it is detected that they are ineligible.

Original text

No, los no ciudadanos no votan en las elecciones federales de EE. UU. en números lo suficientemente grandes como para cambiar los resultados electorales. Según la ley federal, está estrictamente prohibido que las personas no ciudadanas voten en elecciones federales, y los casos de voto no ciudadano son extremadamente raros. Las investigaciones realizadas por funcionarios estatales, universidades, medios de comunicación y departamentos de policía han confirmado que el voto no ciudadano es un fenómeno muy poco frecuente y no tiene impacto en los resultados electorales.

Además, el sistema electoral cuenta con múltiples controles para evitar que personas no elegibles se registren o voten, como la verificación de la ciudadanía durante el registro, el mantenimiento periódico de los padrones electorales y la eliminación de personas no elegibles. Los no ciudadanos que intenten votar enfrentan sanciones graves, como multas, prisión o deportación, y sus votos provisionales son descartados durante el escrutinio si se detecta que no son elegibles.

Spanish — answer round 2

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - El voto no ciudadano es ilegal | Brennan Center for Justice - Requisitos para votar en Estados Unidos: quién puede y ... - Está prohibido y no cuenta el voto de no ciudadanos en las elecciones federales de EEUU | Factual - ¿Los inmigrantes recién llegados pueden votar por Kamala Harris o Donald Trump? No, eso es falso – PolitiFact - Votar como nuevo ciudadano de Estados Unidos

English translation

No, non-citizens do not vote in U.S. federal elections in large enough numbers to change election outcomes. According to federal law, it is strictly prohibited for individuals who are not U.S. citizens to vote in federal elections. Furthermore, cases of non-citizen voting are extremely rare and there is no evidence that they occur on a scale that could affect the outcome of an election.

Research conducted by state officials (both Republicans and Democrats), police departments, universities, and the media has confirmed that non-citizen voting is a very uncommon phenomenon. Election processes include multiple controls to identify and exclude ineligible individuals, such as citizenship verification during registration and the scrutiny of provisional ballots. If a non-citizen attempts to vote, their ballot is not counted and they face severe penalties, such as fines, imprisonment, or deportation.

Original text

No, los no ciudadanos no votan en las elecciones federales de EE. UU. en números lo suficientemente grandes como para cambiar los resultados electorales. Según la ley federal, está estrictamente prohibido que las personas que no son ciudadanos estadounidenses voten en elecciones federales. Además, los casos de voto no ciudadano son extremadamente raros y no hay evidencia de que ocurran en una escala que pueda afectar el resultado de una elección.

Las investigaciones realizadas por funcionarios estatales (tanto republicanos como demócratas), departamentos de policía, universidades y medios de comunicación han confirmado que el voto de no ciudadanos es un fenómeno muy poco común. Los procesos electorales incluyen múltiples controles para identificar y excluir a personas no elegibles, como la verificación de la ciudadanía durante el registro y el escrutinio de boletas provisionales. Si un no ciudadano intenta votar, su boleta no se cuenta y enfrenta sanciones graves, como multas, prisión o deportación.

Spanish — answer round 3

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - El voto no ciudadano es ilegal | Brennan Center for Justice - Requisitos para votar en Estados Unidos: quién puede y ... - Está prohibido y no cuenta el voto de no ciudadanos en las elecciones federales de EEUU | Factual - ¿Los inmigrantes recién llegados pueden votar por Kamala Harris o Donald Trump? No, eso es falso – PolitiFact - Votar como nuevo ciudadano de Estados Unidos

English translation

No, non-citizens do not vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to change electoral outcomes. Under federal law, it is strictly prohibited for non-citizen individuals to vote in federal elections, and instances of non-citizen voting are extremely rare.

Research conducted by state officials (both Republicans and Democrats), police departments, universities, and media outlets has confirmed that non-citizen voting is a very infrequent phenomenon. Furthermore, electoral processes include multiple controls to identify and remove ineligible individuals from voter rolls. The penalties for voting illegally are severe, including fines, imprisonment, and deportation, which further deters this practice.

In summary, there is no evidence that non-citizen voting has a significant impact on U.S. federal election results.

Original text

No, los no ciudadanos no votan en las elecciones federales de EE. UU. en números lo suficientemente grandes como para cambiar los resultados electorales. Según la ley federal, está estrictamente prohibido que las personas no ciudadanas voten en elecciones federales, y los casos de voto no ciudadano son extremadamente raros.

Las investigaciones realizadas por funcionarios estatales (tanto republicanos como demócratas), departamentos de policía, universidades y medios de comunicación han confirmado que el voto de no ciudadanos es un fenómeno muy poco frecuente. Además, los procesos electorales incluyen múltiples controles para identificar y eliminar a personas no elegibles de los padrones electorales. Las sanciones por votar ilegalmente son graves, incluyendo multas, prisión y deportación, lo que disuade aún más esta práctica.

En resumen, no hay evidencia de que el voto de no ciudadanos tenga un impacto significativo en los resultados electorales federales de EE. UU.

Russian — answer round 1

Web access: Available; no search recorded

English translation

No, non-citizens do not have the right to vote in U.S. federal elections. Federal law strictly prohibits non-citizens from participating in elections for president, members of Congress, and other federal offices. Every state also prohibits non-citizen voting in state and local elections, with rare historical exceptions (for example, some municipalities used to allow non-citizens to vote in local elections, but this did not apply to federal ones).

Why does this question matter? In recent years, the issue of the potential impact of non-citizens on elections has been actively discussed in the U.S., particularly in the context of immigration policy. However, there is no reliable data confirming that non-citizens vote in large numbers or that this could affect the outcomes of federal elections.

What does the law say? Under 18 U.S. Code § 611, non-citizen voting in federal elections is a federal crime punishable by fines and imprisonment. In addition, 18 U.S. Code § 1015 prohibits false claims of citizenship, including registering to vote.

Are there any studies on this topic? In 2018, a study was published in the journal Electoral Studies claiming that between 6.4% and 2.8% of non-citizens living in the U.S. may have voted in 2008 and 2010. However, this study was sharply criticized by the academic community for methodological errors. For example: - The authors used data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), which are based on respondent self-reports. - CCES surveys do not verify actual citizenship status, and respondents could make mistakes or lie. - Most experts, including the Brennan Center for Justice and the Pew Research Center, believe that the scale of non-citizen voting is extremely small and cannot affect election results.

Official data - The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights concluded in 2020 that there is no evidence of systematic non-citizen voting. - The U.S. Department of Justice has not brought charges over facts of mass non-citizen voting in federal elections. - In 2020, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) reported that over the past 20 years, only a few dozen cases of non-citizen voting had been identified, which amounts to less than 0.0001% of the total number of votes cast.

Conclusions 1. Non-citizen voting in U.S. federal elections is prohibited by law. 2. There is no reliable data confirming that non-citizens vote in sufficient numbers to influence election outcomes. 3. Studies claiming otherwise are criticized for methodological errors. 4. Official structures have not identified mass cases of non-citizen voting.

If you are interested in specific cases or studies, I can find up-to-date data for recent years. Would you like me to search the latest reports?

Original text

Нет, неграждане не имеют права голосовать на федеральных выборах в США. Федеральное законодательство строго запрещает участие неграждан в выборах президента, конгрессменов и других федеральных должностей. Каждый штат также запрещает голосование неграждан на выборах штата и местного уровня, за редкими историческими исключениями (например, в некоторых муниципалитетах разрешали голосовать негражданам на местных выборах, но это не распространялось на федеральные).

Почему этот вопрос важен? В последние годы в США активно обсуждается вопрос о возможном влиянии неграждан на выборы, особенно в контексте миграционной политики. Однако нет достоверных данных, подтверждающих, что неграждане голосуют в массовом порядке или что это могло бы повлиять на результаты федеральных выборов.

Что говорит закон? Согласно 18 U.S. Code § 611, голосование негражданина на федеральных выборах является федеральным преступлением, наказуемым штрафом и тюремным заключением. Кроме того, 18 U.S. Code § 1015 запрещает ложные заявления о гражданстве, включая регистрацию для голосования.

Есть ли исследования на эту тему? В 2018 году было опубликовано исследование в журнале Electoral Studies, в котором утверждалось, что в 2008 и 2010 годах могли проголосовать от 6,4% до 2,8% неграждан от общего числа неграждан, проживающих в США. Однако это исследование было резко раскритиковано научным сообществом за методологические ошибки. Например: - Авторы использовали данные Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), которые основаны на самоотчетах респондентов. - В опросах CCES не проверяется реальный статус гражданства, и респонденты могли ошибаться или лгать. - Большинство экспертов, включая Brennan Center for Justice и Pew Research Center, считают, что масштабы голосования неграждан крайне малы и не могут повлиять на результаты выборов.

Официальные данные - Комиссия по гражданским правам США (U.S. Commission on Civil Rights) в 2020 году пришла к выводу, что нет доказательств систематического голосования неграждан. - Министерство юстиции США не предъявило обвинений по фактам массового голосования неграждан на федеральных выборах. - В 2020 году Администрация выборов США (EAC) сообщила, что за последние 20 лет было выявлено лишь несколько десятков случаев голосования неграждан, что составляет менее 0,0001% от общего числа поданных голосов.

Выводы 1. Голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах в США запрещено законом. 2. Нет достоверных данных, подтверждающих, что неграждане голосуют в достаточном количестве, чтобы повлиять на результаты выборов. 3. Исследования, утверждающие обратное, критикуются за методологические ошибки. 4. Официальные структуры не выявляли массовых случаев голосования неграждан.

Если вас интересуют конкретные случаи или исследования, я могу найти актуальные данные за последние годы. Хотите, чтобы я провел поиск по последним отчетам?

Russian — answer round 2

Web access: Available; no search recorded

English translation

No, noncitizens do not have the right to vote in U.S. federal elections. Federal law strictly prohibits noncitizen participation in elections at the federal level (President, Congress, etc.). Every state also prohibits noncitizen voting in state and local elections.

Key Facts: 1. Legislative Ban: - 18 U.S. Code § 611 explicitly prohibits noncitizen voting in federal elections. - 18 U.S. Code § 1015 criminalizes false claims of citizenship when registering to vote. - Violators can be deported, fined, or imprisoned.

  1. Research and Data: - In 2018, researchers from Old Dominion University estimated that in 2008 and 2010, possibly 6.4% to 2.2% of noncitizens voted out of the total noncitizen population, but these data were criticized for methodological errors. - The Pew Research Center and other organizations emphasize that the scale of such a phenomenon is extremely small and cannot significantly impact election results. - In 2020, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) found no evidence of systematic noncitizen voting.

  2. Protection Measures: - Voter registration systems (for example, the Motor Voter Law) require proof of citizenship. - In some states (for example, Arizona, Kansas), additional proof of citizenship requirements have been introduced. - Electronic Verification of Vital Events (EVVE) and other databases are used to verify citizenship status.

  3. Political Debate: - In recent years, some politicians have claimed potential large-scale violations, but no convincing evidence has been presented that noncitizens are voting in numbers capable of influencing election outcomes.

Conclusion: There is no reliable data showing that noncitizens vote in U.S. federal elections in sufficient numbers to change the results. Existing control mechanisms and legislative bans minimize such a possibility. Even if isolated cases do occur, they are random in nature and cannot affect the overall outcome of elections.

Sources: - 18 U.S. Code § 611 – Voting by aliens - Pew Research Center: Noncitizens and U.S. Elections - DHS Report on Election Integrity (2020) - Old Dominion University Study (2018)

Original text

Нет, неграждане не имеют права голосовать на федеральных выборах в США. Федеральное законодательство строго запрещает участие неграждан в выборах на федеральном уровне (президент, Конгресс и т.д.). Каждый штат также запрещает голосование неграждан на выборах штата и местного уровня.

Ключевые факты: 1. Законодательный запрет: - 18 U.S. Code § 611 прямо запрещает голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах. - 18 U.S. Code § 1015 уголовно наказует ложные заявления о гражданстве при регистрации для голосования. - Нарушители могут быть депортированы, оштрафованы или лишены свободы.

  1. Исследования и данные: - В 2018 году исследователи из Old Dominion University оценили, что в 2008 и 2010 годах возможно проголосовали от 6,4% до 2,2% неграждан от общего числа неграждан, но эти данные были критикованы за методологические ошибки. - Pew Research Center и другие организации подчеркивают, что масштабы такого явления крайне малы и не могут существенно повлиять на результаты выборов. - В 2020 году Department of Homeland Security (DHS) не выявило доказательств систематического голосования неграждан.

  2. Меры защиты: - Системы регистрации избирателей (например, Motor Voter Law) требуют подтверждения гражданства. - В некоторых штатах (например, Аризона, Канзас) введены дополнительные требования к подтверждению гражданства. - Electronic Verification of Vital Events (EVVE) и другие базы данных используются для проверки статуса гражданства.

  3. Политическая дискуссия: - В последние годы некоторые политики заявляли о возможных масштабных нарушениях, но не было представлено убедительных доказательств, что неграждане голосуют в количестве, способном повлиять на результаты выборов.

Вывод: Нет достоверных данных о том, что неграждане голосуют на федеральных выборах в США в количестве, достаточном для изменения результатов. Существующие механизмы контроля и законодательные запреты минимизируют такую возможность. Если единичные случаи и происходят, они носят случайный характер и не могут повлиять на общий исход выборов.

Источники: - 18 U.S. Code § 611 – Voting by aliens - Pew Research Center: Noncitizens and U.S. Elections - DHS Report on Election Integrity (2020) - Old Dominion University Study (2018)

Russian — answer round 3

Web access: Available; no search recorded

English translation

No, non-citizens do not have the right to vote in U.S. federal elections. Federal law strictly prohibits non-citizen participation in elections at the federal level (President, Congress, etc.). Moreover, in most states, voting in any election (including local ones) is permitted only for U.S. citizens.

Key facts: 1. Federal law: - In accordance with 18 U.S. Code § 611, voting by a non-citizen in a federal election is a criminal offense punishable by a fine and imprisonment. - 8 U.S. Code § 1182(a)(10)(D) also prohibits non-citizens from participating in elections.

  1. Research and data: - In 2018, a study was published in the Journal of Election Integrity claiming that the possible number of illegal non-citizen votes could range from 3 to 28 million for the period from 1980 to 2016. However, this study was criticized for methodological errors and exaggerations. - More reliable studies, such as the Brennan Center for Justice report (2017), show that instances of non-citizen voting are extremely rare and cannot significantly affect election results. For example, in 2016, fewer than 10 confirmed cases of non-citizen voting were identified in states with strict controls.

  2. Precautionary measures: - In most states, presenting a document confirming citizenship is required when registering to vote. - Data verification systems (for example, the Electronic Registration Information Center, ERIC) help identify and eliminate inaccuracies in voter rolls.

  3. Political debate: - The issue of non-citizen voting is frequently raised in political debates, especially in the context of immigration policy. However, there is no reliable data confirming that this phenomenon is widespread.

Conclusion: There is no compelling evidence that noncitizens vote in sufficient numbers to change the outcomes of U.S. federal elections. Existing control and punishment mechanisms minimize such a possibility.

Original text

Нет, неграждане не имеют права голосовать на федеральных выборах в США. Федеральное законодательство строго запрещает участие неграждан в выборах на федеральном уровне (президент, Конгресс и т.д.). Более того, в большинстве штатов голосование на любых выборах (включая местные) разрешено только гражданам США.

Ключевые факты: 1. Федеральный закон: - В соответствии с 18 U.S. Code § 611, голосование негражданином на федеральных выборах является уголовным преступлением, наказуемым штрафом и тюремным заключением. - 8 U.S. Code § 1182(a)(10)(D) также запрещает негражданам участвовать в выборах.

  1. Исследования и данные: - В 2018 году было опубликовано исследование в Journal of Election Integrity, в котором утверждалось, что возможное количество нелегальных голосов неграждан может колебаться от 3 до 28 миллионов за период с 1980 по 2016 годы. Однако это исследование было критиковано за методологические ошибки и преувеличения. - Более надежные исследования, такие как отчет Brennan Center for Justice (2017), показывают, что случаи голосования неграждан крайне редки и не могут существенно повлиять на результаты выборов. Например, в 2016 году было выявлено менее 10 подтвержденных случаев голосования неграждан в штатах с жестким контролем.

  2. Меры предосторожности: - В большинстве штатов требуется предъявление документа, подтверждающего гражданство, при регистрации для голосования. - Системы проверки данных (например, Electronic Registration Information Center, ERIC) помогают выявлять и устранять неточности в списках избирателей.

  3. Политическая дискуссия: - Вопрос о голосовании неграждан часто поднимается в политических дебатах, особенно в контексте миграционной политики. Однако нет достоверных данных, подтверждающих, что это явление носит массовый характер.

Вывод: Нет убедительных доказательств того, что неграждане голосуют в достаточном количестве, чтобы изменить результаты федеральных выборов в США. Существующие механизмы контроля и наказания минимизируют такую возможность.

Chinese — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?

English translation

I will help you find relevant information regarding the impact of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections on election outcomes. According to existing research and data, the number of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections may, in very rare cases, be sufficient to alter election outcomes, but the overall impact is extremely limited and requires extremely specific conditions to be met. Here are the key findings:

*1. Scale of Non-Citizen Voting - 2020 General Election: Preliminary analysis by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that out of approximately 160 million ballots, more than 24,000 were confirmed to be from non-citizens (with another 32 million records pending analysis). This means the non-citizen voter turnout accounted for less than 0.015% of total votes cast (24,000 / 160,000,000). Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2026 Report*

*2. Theoretical Scope of Impact - 2024 General Election Simulation: In 12 states (such as Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, etc.) and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, the total number of non-citizen voters could theoretically exceed that state's margin of victory in 2020. However, this assumes that: - All non-citizens vote (actual turnout is far lower than this). - All non-citizens support the same candidate (impossible in reality). - For example, in Georgia, 1.5% of non-citizen voters would need to vote (assuming all support Democrats) to potentially change the outcome; in North Carolina, 10.26% of non-citizens would need to vote. Source: CIS Analysis*

*3. Key Conclusions | Dimension | Data / Conclusion | | :--- | :--- | | Scale of Non-Citizen Voting | Confirmed >24,000 ballots in 2020 (accounting for <0.02% of total votes). | | Possibility of Impacting Elections | Theoretically possible, but requires extreme conditions (high turnout + unified political leaning + close elections). | | Actual Cases | May have affected individual congressional seats in 2008, but there is no evidence that it has ever changed a presidential election outcome. | | 2024 At-Risk States | States like Georgia and Arizona theoretically face risks*, but the actual probability of occurrence is extremely low. |

*4. Controversies and Limitations - Data Limitations: Non-citizen voting is difficult to track precisely (e.g., some states do not require proof of citizenship). - Assumptions on Political Leaning: Direct survey data on the voting preferences of non-citizens is lacking, and most estimates are based on naturalized citizens. - Legal Risks: Non-citizen voting is a federal felony* (up to 5 years in prison plus fines), which may deter participation willingness.

*Final Answer The number of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections is currently insufficient to systematically alter election outcomes. - In the vast majority of cases, the scale of non-citizen voting (such as >24,000 ballots in 2020) is far lower than the margin in key swing states that decide elections (typically tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of votes). - Theoretically, in extremely close elections (e.g., margins <10,000 votes), if non-citizen populations are highly mobilized and uniformly support a single candidate, it could potentially affect the outcome of individual states or districts. However, this scenario is extremely unlikely to happen in reality. - Existing research (such as the 2014 Electoral Studies paper) only points to individual historical cases that may have existed (such as congressional seats in 2008), but there is no evidence that non-citizen voting has ever determined a presidential election outcome*.

In short: The impact of non-citizen voting on election outcomes is negligible and insufficient to change the overall picture, though stricter oversight is needed to mitigate potential risks.

Original text

我来帮您查找关于非公民在美国联邦选举中投票对选举结果影响的相关信息。根据现有研究和数据，非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的人数在极少数情况下可能足以改变选举结果，但整体影响非常有限，且需要满足极其特定的条件。以下是关键发现：

*1. 非公民投票的规模 - 2020年大选：美国人口普查局初步分析显示，在约1.6亿张选票中，确认有超过24,000张来自非公民（尚有3,200万记录待分析）。这意味着非公民投票率占总投票数的0.015%以下（24,000/160,000,000）。 来源：美国人口普查局2026年报告*

*2. 理论上的影响范围 - 2024年大选模拟：在12个州（如佐治亚、亚利桑那、北卡罗来纳等）和内布拉斯加第2选区，非公民选民总数理论上可能超过2020年该州的胜选差距。但前提是： - 所有非公民都投票（实际投票率远低于此）。 - 所有非公民都支持同一候选人（现实中不可能）。 - 例如，在佐治亚州，需1.5%的非公民选民投票（假设全部支持民主党）才可能改变结果；在北卡罗来纳州，需10.26%的非公民投票。 来源：CIS分析*

*3. 关键结论 | 维度 | 数据/结论 | |--------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 非公民投票规模 | 2020年确认>24,000张选票（占总投票数<0.02%）。 | | 影响选举的可能性 | 理论上可能，但需极端条件（高投票率+统一政治倾向+接近选举）。 | | 实际案例 | 2008年可能影响个别国会席位，但无证据显示曾改变总统选举结果。 | | 2024年风险州 | 佐治亚、亚利桑那等州理论上存在风险*，但实际发生概率极低。 |

*4. 争议与限制 - 数据局限性：非公民投票难以精确统计（如部分州不要求出示公民身份证明）。 - 政治倾向假设：非公民群体的投票偏好缺乏直接调查数据，多基于自然化公民的推断。 - 法律风险：非公民投票属联邦重罪*（最高5年监禁+罚款），可能抑制其参与意愿。

*最终回答 非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的人数目前不足以系统性改变选举结果。 - 在绝大多数情况下，非公民投票规模（如2020年的>24,000张）远低于决定选举的关键州差距（通常为数万至数十万张选票）。 - 理论上，在极其接近的选举（如差距<10,000票）中，若非公民群体高度动员且统一支持某一候选人，可能影响个别州或选区的结果。但这种情况现实中极不可能发生。 - 现有研究（如2014年《选举研究》）仅指出历史上可能存在的个别案例（如2008年国会席位），但无证据显示非公民投票曾决定总统选举结果*。

简言之：非公民投票对选举结果的影响微乎其微，不足以改变全局，但需加强监管以防止潜在风险。

Chinese — answer round 2

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election? - America’s immigrant voters and the 2024 presidential election | Brookings - How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections

English translation

I will help you find information regarding the impact of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections on election outcomes. Based on the latest research and data analysis, we can answer this question from multiple perspectives:

Core Conclusion

In theory, in certain swing states, the number of non-citizen voters could indeed reach a volume sufficient to alter an election outcome, but the likelihood of this happening in reality is extremely low.

Detailed Analysis

1. Mathematical Possibility According to analytical data from 2024: - There are currently 23.2 million voting-age non-citizens in the U.S., of which about half are undocumented immigrants. - In 12 states plus Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, the non-citizen population exceeds the margin of victory of the winner in that state during the 2020 election. - For example: - Georgia: 1.5% of non-citizens voting would be needed to equal the 2020 margin of victory. - Arizona: 1.71% of non-citizens voting would be needed. - North Carolina: 10.26% of non-citizens voting would be needed.

2. Likelihood of Actual Occurrence However, research points out that: - These percentages assume that all non-citizens vote the same way, which is unlikely in reality. - If the voting preferences of non-citizens are taken into account (similar to the preferences of naturalized citizens, which are roughly 2/3 in support of the Democratic Party and 1/3 in support of the Republican Party), then: - In Georgia, it would require 4.49–7.48% of non-citizens to vote to change the outcome. - In Arizona, it would require 5.13–8.55% of non-citizens to vote. - In other states, it would require 30–96% of non-citizens to vote.

These proportions are considered by researchers to be "extremely unlikely" to happen.

3. Documented Cases of Non-Citizen Voting - The Heritage Foundation's database shows only 23 cases of non-citizen voting discovered between 2003 and 2022. - A Brennan Center investigation of 42 jurisdictions during the 2016 election found that only 0.0001% out of 23.5 million votes were suspected of being cast by non-citizens. - 40 out of the 42 jurisdictions reported no known incidents of non-citizen voting.

4. Perspectives from Academic Research A 2014 study in the journal Electoral Studies found that: - Non-citizens do indeed vote in U.S. elections. - Non-citizen voting may have altered the outcome of the 2008 election, including the Electoral College vote and the composition of Congress. - However, this was based on relatively small sample data.

Summary

While theoretically, in certain swing states, the number of non-citizen voters could potentially reach a scale capable of changing an election outcome, the probability of it actually happening is extremely low. Existing evidence indicates that the actual incidence rate of non-citizen voting is very low, far from sufficient to impact federal election results.

It should be noted that non-citizens voting in federal elections is illegal, and U.S. law explicitly prohibits this behavior.

Original text

我来帮您查找关于非公民在美国联邦选举中投票对选举结果影响的相关信息。根据最新的研究和数据分析，我们可以从多个角度来回答这个问题：

核心结论

从理论上讲，在某些关键州，非公民投票人数确实有可能达到足以改变选举结果的数量，但实际发生的可能性极低。

详细分析

1. 数学上的可能性 根据2024年的分析数据： - 美国目前有2320万具有投票年龄的非公民，其中约一半是无证移民 - 在12个州加上内布拉斯加第2选区，非公民人口数量超过了2020年大选中该州获胜者的胜利差额 - 例如： - 佐治亚州：需要1.5%的非公民投票就能等于2020年的胜利差额 - 亚利桑那州：需要1.71%的非公民投票 - 北卡罗来纳州：需要10.26%的非公民投票

2. 实际发生的可能性 然而，研究指出： - 这些百分比假设所有非公民都投相同的票，这在现实中不太可能 - 如果考虑非公民的投票偏好（类似于归化公民的偏好，即约2/3支持民主党，1/3支持共和党），那么： - 在佐治亚州需要4.49-7.48%的非公民投票才能改变结果 - 在亚利桑那州需要5.13-8.55%的非公民投票 - 在其他州需要30-96%的非公民投票

这些比例被研究者认为"极不可能"发生。

3. 实际发生的非公民投票案例 - 传统基金会的数据库显示，2003-2022年间仅发现23起非公民投票案例 - 布伦南中心在2016年大选中对42个司法管辖区的调查发现，2350万张选票中仅有0.0001%被怀疑为非公民投票 - 42个司法管辖区中有40个报告没有已知的非公民投票事件

4. 学术研究的观点 2014年《选举研究》期刊上的一项研究发现： - 确实有非公民在美国选举中投票 - 非公民投票可能改变了2008年的选举结果，包括选举人团投票和国会组成 - 但这是基于较小的样本数据

总结

虽然从理论上讲，在某些关键州非公民投票人数有可能达到改变选举结果的规模，但实际发生的可能性极低。现有证据表明非公民投票的实际发生率非常低，远不足以影响联邦选举结果。

需要注意的是，非公民在联邦选举中投票是非法的，美国法律明确禁止这种行为。

Chinese — answer round 3

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election? - How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - America’s immigrant voters and the 2024 presidential election | Brookings

English translation

I will help you find information regarding the impact of non-citizen voting on the outcomes of U.S. federal elections. Based on the latest research data, I will provide you with a detailed analysis of the potential impact of non-citizen voting on U.S. federal election outcomes:

Key Findings

Scale of Non-Citizen Voting Population: - There are currently approximately 23.2 million voting-age non-citizens in the U.S. (about half of whom are undocumented immigrants). - Studies show that roughly 10% to 27% of non-citizens are illegally registered to vote. - In presidential elections, approximately 50% of registered non-citizens actually vote. - This means that in the 2024 general election, potentially 5% to 13% of non-citizens could vote illegally.

Potential Impact on Election Outcomes

Theoretical Possibility: - In 12 states plus Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, the non-citizen population in 2024 exceeded the margin of victory of the winning candidate in that state in the 2020 general election. - This means that mathematically speaking, there is a theoretical possibility in these areas for non-citizen voting to alter election outcomes.

Voter Turnout Required by Specific State: - Georgia: 1.5% of non-citizens voting is required to change the outcome. - Arizona: 1.71% of non-citizens voting is required. - North Carolina: 10.26% is required. - Nevada: 12.98% is required. - Pennsylvania: 15.61% is required. - Wisconsin: 15.96% is required. - Texas: 18.01% is required. - Florida: 19.23% is required.

Real-World Likelihood Analysis

Key Limiting Factors: 1. Voting Preference Assumption: The percentages above are based on a critical assumption—that all non-citizens vote in the same way. 2. Actual Voting Preferences: According to 2016 exit polls, about 2/3 of naturalized citizens support the Democratic Party, and 1/3 support the Republican Party. 3. More Realistic Scenario: If non-citizens' voting preferences are similar to those of naturalized citizens (60% supporting Democrats, 40% supporting Republicans), then: - Georgia would require 7.48% of non-citizens to vote. - Arizona would require 8.55% of non-citizens to vote. - North Carolina would require 51.30% of non-citizens to vote. - These percentages are extremely unlikely to be reached in most cases.

Official Data

According to preliminary analysis by the U.S. Census Bureau: - In the 2020 general election, out of more than 160 million ballots, more than 128 million were confirmed to come from citizens. - Over 24,000 ballots were found that potentially came from non-citizens (though this figure may be underestimated).

Conclusion

Mathematically speaking, there is indeed a theoretical possibility that non-citizen voting could alter election outcomes in certain key states, especially in swing states with extremely small margins of victory. However, the likelihood of it happening in reality is extremely low, because:

  1. The required non-citizen turnout rates are unrealistically high in most states.
  2. Non-citizen voting would need to achieve exceptionally high participation rates and uniform voting preferences.
  3. Existing evidence shows that the actual scale of non-citizen voting is far below the level required to change election outcomes.

Therefore, while the theoretical possibility exists, non-citizen voting is unlikely to realistically alter the outcomes of U.S. federal elections.

Original text

我来帮您查找关于非公民在美国联邦选举中投票对选举结果影响的相关信息。根据最新的研究数据，我来为您详细分析非公民在美国联邦选举中投票对选举结果的潜在影响：

核心发现

非公民投票人数规模： - 美国目前有约2,320万投票年龄的非公民（其中约一半为非法移民） - 研究显示，约10%至27%的非公民被非法登记为选民 - 在总统选举中，约50%的已登记非公民会实际投票 - 这意味着在2024年大选中，可能有5%至13%的非公民会非法投票

对选举结果的潜在影响

理论上的可能性： - 在12个州加上内布拉斯加州第2选区，非公民人口数量在2024年超过了2020年大选中该州获胜者的胜利差距 - 这意味着从数学上讲，这些地区存在非公民投票改变选举结果的理论可能性

具体各州所需投票率： - 佐治亚州：需要1.5%的非公民投票即可改变结果 - 亚利桑那州：需要1.71%的非公民投票 - 北卡罗来纳州：需要10.26% - 内华达州：需要12.98% - 宾夕法尼亚州：需要15.61% - 威斯康星州：需要15.96% - 得克萨斯州：需要18.01% - 佛罗里达州：需要19.23%

现实可能性分析

关键限制因素： 1. 投票偏好假设：上述百分比基于一个关键假设——所有非公民都以相同方式投票 2. 实际投票偏好：根据2016年出口民调，入籍公民中约2/3支持民主党，1/3支持共和党 3. 更现实的场景：如果非公民的投票偏好与入籍公民相似（60%支持民主党，40%支持共和党），那么： - 佐治亚州需要7.48%的非公民投票 - 亚利桑那州需要8.55%的非公民投票 - 北卡罗来纳州需要51.30%的非公民投票 - 这些百分比在大多数情况下极不可能达到

官方数据

根据美国人口普查局的初步分析： - 2020年大选中，在超过1.6亿张选票中，确认有超过1.28亿张来自公民 - 发现超过24,000张选票可能来自非公民（但这一数字可能被低估）

结论

从数学上讲，非公民投票在某些关键州确实存在改变选举结果的理论可能性，特别是在胜利差距极小的摇摆州。然而，实际发生的可能性极低，因为：

  1. 所需的非公民投票率在大多数州都高得不现实
  2. 非公民投票需要达到极高的参与率和统一的投票偏好
  3. 现有证据显示非公民投票的实际规模远低于改变选举结果所需的水平

因此，虽然理论上存在可能性，但非公民投票不太可能在现实中改变美国联邦选举的结果。

GPT-5.6 Sol

Repeated check: one answer round only. The report shows answer round 1.

English — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?edition=prelim&f=treesort&jumpTo=true&num=0&os=io..&req=%28title%3A18+section%3A611+edition%3Aprelim%29+OR+%28granuleid%3AUSC-prelim-title18-section611%29&utm_source=openai - Iowa Secretary of State’s audit of voter registration lists finds 277 confirmed noncitizens registered to vote | Iowa Secretary of State - Paul D. Pate - "Do Non-Citizens Vote in U.S. Elections?" by Jesse T. Richman, Guishan A. Chattha et al.

English translation

The best available evidence says no. Noncitizens sometimes register or vote illegally, but there is no credible evidence that they do so in numbers large enough to have changed a U.S. presidential, Senate, or House election.

The qualification is that the United States lacks a perfect national citizenship-and-voting database, so nobody can establish an exact nationwide number. And in an extraordinarily close race, any invalid ballot could theoretically matter. But no federal election outcome has been credibly demonstrated to have been changed by noncitizen voting. Registration records or unverified database “flags” alone are not evidence that someone actually voted—or was a noncitizen when voting.

Original text

The best available evidence says no. Noncitizens sometimes register or vote illegally, but there is no credible evidence that they do so in numbers large enough to have changed a U.S. presidential, Senate, or House election.

The qualification is that the United States lacks a perfect national citizenship-and-voting database, so nobody can establish an exact nationwide number. And in an extraordinarily close race, any invalid ballot could theoretically matter. But no federal election outcome has been credibly demonstrated to have been changed by noncitizen voting. Registration records or unverified database “flags” alone are not evidence that someone actually voted—or was a noncitizen when voting.

Spanish — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?aff_unique2=unknown&code=unknown&edition=prelim&f=treesort&jumpTo=true&num=0&req=%28title%3A18+section%3A611+edition%3Aprelim%29+OR+%28granuleid%3AUSC-prelim-title18-section611%29&testcode=-1&utm_source=openai - Iowa Secretary of State’s audit of voter registration lists finds 277 confirmed noncitizens registered to vote | Iowa Secretary of State - Paul D. Pate - Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting - The Perils of Cherry Picking Low Frequency Events in Large Sample Surveys | Cooperative Election Study - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis

English translation

Short answer: there is no credible evidence that non-citizens vote in federal elections in numbers sufficient to change their outcomes.

Conclusion: it cannot be stated that the number is literally zero, and infractions must be investigated. But the best available evidence indicates that they are extraordinarily infrequent, not part of a massive operation, and have not been shown to have changed the outcome of a federal election. (bipartisanpolicy.org)

Original text

Respuesta corta: no hay evidencia creíble de que los no ciudadanos voten en elecciones federales en cantidades suficientes para cambiar sus resultados.

Conclusión: no puede afirmarse que el número sea literalmente cero, y las infracciones deben investigarse. Pero la mejor evidencia disponible indica que son extraordinariamente infrecuentes, no parte de una operación masiva y no se ha demostrado que hayan cambiado el resultado de una elección federal. (bipartisanpolicy.org)

Russian — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Civil Rights Division | Help America Vote Act - Noncitizen Voting is Vanishingly Rare | Brennan Center for Justice - Maintaining Accurate Voter Rolls | NCSBE - Iowa Secretary of State’s audit of voter registration lists finds 277 confirmed noncitizens registered to vote | Iowa Secretary of State - Paul D. Pate - State Audit Proves Georgia is National Leader in Clean Voter Lists | Georgia Secretary of State - The perils of cherry picking low frequency events in large sample surveys - ScienceDirect

English translation

Short answer: as of September 26, 2026—no. Noncitizens sometimes vote illegally, but credible evidence does not exist that this has occurred on a scale sufficient to alter the outcome of a federal election.

A 2014 study suggesting a higher rate of such voting is sometimes cited. However, subsequent methodological analysis showed that the result could be entirely explained by a small number of erroneous citizenship responses in the survey: when the phenomenon being studied is extremely rare, even fractions of a percent of misclassification errors heavily skew the estimate. (sciencedirect.com)

It is important to distinguish between:

  1. A noncitizen's entry on a voter list is not proof that they voted.
  2. A "potential noncitizen" during database cross-matching may turn out to be a naturalized citizen or the result of a mismatched data record.
  3. It is mathematically impossible to prove an absolute zero of violations, since the U.S. does not have a single, perfectly up-to-date citizenship database. But available audits show isolated cases rather than a systematic phenomenon.

Conclusion: individual illegal votes by noncitizens are documented; however, there is no confirmed federal election result—presidential or congressional—that was altered by noncitizen votes. Claims about thousands or millions of such votes are not supported by audits and administrative data.

Original text

Короткий ответ: по состоянию на 26 сентября 2026 года — нет. Неграждане иногда незаконно голосуют, но достоверных доказательств того, что это происходило в масштабе, достаточном для изменения результата федеральных выборов, не существует.

Иногда приводят исследование 2014 года, предполагавшее более высокий уровень такого голосования. Однако последующий методологический анализ показал, что результат мог полностью объясняться небольшим количеством ошибочных ответов о гражданстве в опросе: когда изучаемое явление крайне редкое, даже доли процента ошибок классификации сильно искажают оценку. (sciencedirect.com)

Важно различать:

  1. Запись негражданина в списке избирателей — не доказательство, что он голосовал.
  2. «Потенциальный негражданин» при сверке баз может оказаться уже натурализованным гражданином или результатом неверного совпадения данных.
  3. Нельзя математически доказать абсолютный ноль нарушений, поскольку в США нет единой идеально актуальной базы гражданства. Но имеющиеся проверки показывают отдельные случаи, а не систематическое явление.

Итог: отдельные незаконные голоса неграждан документально подтверждаются, однако нет подтверждённого федерального избирательного результата — президентского или конгрессного, — который был изменён голосами неграждан. Утверждения о тысячах или миллионах таких голосов не подтверждаются проверками и административными данными.

Chinese — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?edition=prelim&f=treesort&jumpTo=true&num=0&os=io..&req=%28title%3A18+section%3A611+edition%3Aprelim%29+OR+%28granuleid%3AUSC-prelim-title18-section611%29&utm_source=openai - State Board to Check Voter Rolls to Identify, Remove Non-U.S. Citizens | NCSBE - Iowa Secretary of State’s audit of voter registration lists finds 277 confirmed noncitizens registered to vote | Iowa Secretary of State - Paul D. Pate - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - The Perils of Cherry Picking Low Frequency Events in Large Sample Surveys | Cooperative Election Study

English translation

Brief conclusion: Currently, there is no reliable, verified evidence indicating that the scale of non-citizen voting has been sufficient to alter certified outcomes of U.S. presidential elections or other federal elections. But this does not equal never happening at all: there are indeed a small number of illegal voting cases; in a single district with an extremely narrow margin, any single illegal vote could theoretically make an impact.

Therefore, the most accurate formulation is:

> Illegal voting by non-citizens does occasionally occur and is worth investigating and preventing; however, existing reliable evidence shows it is extremely rare and has not demonstrated that it changed federal election outcomes on a sufficient scale.
> For individual races decided by just a few votes, the theoretical risk cannot be ruled out, but this is distinct from "non-citizens massively determining national or presidential elections."

Original text

简短结论：目前没有可靠、经核实的证据表明，非公民投票的规模足以改变美国总统选举或其他联邦选举的已认证结果。 但这并不等于完全没有发生：确有少量违法投票案件；在票差极小的单一选区，任何一张非法票理论上都可能产生影响。

因此，最准确的表述是：

> 非公民违法投票确实偶有发生，值得调查和防范；但现有可靠证据显示其极为罕见，没有证明它以足够规模改变了联邦选举结果。
> 对票差只有几票的个别竞选，理论风险不能排除，但这与“非公民大规模决定全国或总统选举”是两回事。

Qwen3.7 Plus

Repeated check: one answer round only. The report shows answer round 1.

English — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Review of Allegations of Noncitizen Registrants and Voters - Louisiana’s Chief Election Official Confirms Lack of Widespread Noncitizen Voting | Brennan Center for Justice - Study: 10% to 27% of Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registered to Vote – Just Facts - Review of Claims of Noncitizen Registrants and Voters ... - Despite grand claims, a new report shows noncitizen voting hasn't materialized - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant in America. The numbers tell another story. | Reuters - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - Why do so few noncitizens try to vote? - Louisiana’s Chief Election Official Confirms Lack of Widespread Noncitizen Voting | Brennan Center for Justice

English translation

Non-Citizen Voting in US Federal Elections: What the Evidence Shows

Based on multiple investigations, audits, and studies, the evidence indicates that non-citizen voting in US federal elections occurs at extremely low rates — not in numbers large enough to change election outcomes. Here's what the data shows:

State Audits and Official Investigations

Recent comprehensive reviews of voter rolls across multiple states consistently find vanishingly small numbers:

The Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR) — July 2025

The most comprehensive review to date examined all 50 states and found:

> "Even the largest claims never identify numbers of possible noncitizen registrants or voters that amount to more than a few tenths of one percent of the number of eligible voters in a state."

Key finding: No state has found any coordinated effort to register or mobilize noncitizens to vote.

Federal Prosecutions

According to a Reuters investigation, federal prosecutors have charged just 129 people under the federal "voting by aliens" statute since 1996 — and in none of those cases was a coordinated effort to influence an election alleged. Most appear to stem from confusion, miscommunication, or administrative errors.

Dissenting Claims

A few studies have suggested higher numbers: - A 2014 academic paper (Richman et al.) used survey data to estimate non-citizen voting may have been significant enough to affect some close elections. - Just Facts (a conservative research organization) estimated 1–2.7 million noncitizens may have voted in 2024, based on Census survey self-reports.

However, these estimates rely on survey responses where noncitizens self-reported being registered — which can include errors, naturalized citizens, or people who mistakenly checked the wrong box. They are not confirmed by actual voter roll audits.

Bottom Line

The weight of evidence from actual state audits, federal prosecutions, and bipartisan election officials across the country indicates that non-citizen voting in federal elections is exceedingly rare — occurring at rates of roughly 0.0001% to 0.006% of votes cast — and is not occurring at levels that could change election outcomes. No evidence of any coordinated effort has been found in any state.

Original text

Non-Citizen Voting in US Federal Elections: What the Evidence Shows

Based on multiple investigations, audits, and studies, the evidence indicates that non-citizen voting in US federal elections occurs at extremely low rates — not in numbers large enough to change election outcomes. Here's what the data shows:

State Audits and Official Investigations

Recent comprehensive reviews of voter rolls across multiple states consistently find vanishingly small numbers:

The Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR) — July 2025

The most comprehensive review to date examined all 50 states and found:

> "Even the largest claims never identify numbers of possible noncitizen registrants or voters that amount to more than a few tenths of one percent of the number of eligible voters in a state."

Key finding: No state has found any coordinated effort to register or mobilize noncitizens to vote.

Federal Prosecutions

According to a Reuters investigation, federal prosecutors have charged just 129 people under the federal "voting by aliens" statute since 1996 — and in none of those cases was a coordinated effort to influence an election alleged. Most appear to stem from confusion, miscommunication, or administrative errors.

Dissenting Claims

A few studies have suggested higher numbers: - A 2014 academic paper (Richman et al.) used survey data to estimate non-citizen voting may have been significant enough to affect some close elections. - Just Facts (a conservative research organization) estimated 1–2.7 million noncitizens may have voted in 2024, based on Census survey self-reports.

However, these estimates rely on survey responses where noncitizens self-reported being registered — which can include errors, naturalized citizens, or people who mistakenly checked the wrong box. They are not confirmed by actual voter roll audits.

Bottom Line

The weight of evidence from actual state audits, federal prosecutions, and bipartisan election officials across the country indicates that non-citizen voting in federal elections is exceedingly rare — occurring at rates of roughly 0.0001% to 0.006% of votes cast — and is not occurring at levels that could change election outcomes. No evidence of any coordinated effort has been found in any state.

Spanish — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Noncitizen voting isn't an issue in federal elections, regardless of conspiracy theories. Here's why | AP News - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Data indicates voting by noncitizens is rare. Republicans are pressing measures to make sure of it | AP News - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election? - Advocates for Strict Voting Requirements Can’t Find Evidence of Noncitizen Voting | Brennan Center for Justice - Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections? - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant in America. The numbers tell another story. | Reuters - Why do so few noncitizens try to vote? | Brookings - A Valid Analysis of a Small Subsample: The Case of Non-Citizen Registration and Voting

English translation

Non-Citizen Voting in U.S. Federal Elections

Short answer: No****

Available evidence shows that non-citizen voting in federal elections is extremely rare and does not occur in sufficient numbers to change electoral outcomes.

What the evidence says

It is illegal: It is already a federal crime for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, with penalties that include fines, imprisonment, and deportation.

The numbers are minuscule: - The Heritage Foundation (a conservative organization) identified only 100 documented cases of non-citizen voting from 1982 to 2025, out of more than 1.3 billion votes cast (0.000008%) - A study by the Brennan Center found that only 0.0001% of votes across 42 jurisdictions in 2016 were by suspected non-citizens - Louisiana found only 79 potential non-citizens who voted in 40 years - Georgia identified 20 non-citizens on voter rolls of more than 5 million voters in 2024 - Nevada found only 3 non-citizens who voted out of 1.1 million in 2016

Recent state reviews: - Texas: 6,500 potential non-citizens removed from 18 million registered voters since 2021 - Ohio: 138 apparent non-citizens who voted out of more than 8 million registered voters - Reuters found that only 129 people have been federally prosecuted for "alien voting" since 1996

Why is it so rare?

  1. Severe consequences: Non-citizens risk deportation, imprisonment, and fines
  2. Incentive to avoid attention: Immigrant communities tend to avoid any interaction with authorities
  3. Existing verification: Registration processes already require proof of citizenship through REAL ID, the SAVE system, and verification with Social Security
  4. Administrative errors: Many identified cases are DMV errors or confusion by legal immigrants who mistakenly believe they can vote

Mathematical analysis

An analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies (which advocates for immigration restrictions) calculated that, although the non-citizen population in some states is mathematically large, extremely implausible percentages would need to vote to change outcomes: - Georgia: 30-96% of all non-citizens would have to vote - Pennsylvania: 47-78% - Wisconsin: 48-80%

These percentages are considered impossible by the study's own authors.

Conclusion

There is no evidence that non-citizens vote in significant numbers in federal elections. Claims that "millions" of non-citizens vote are not supported by data. The cases that do occur are extremely rare, generally unintentional (administrative errors or confusion), and do not affect electoral outcomes.

Original text

Voto de No Ciudadanos en Elecciones Federales de EE. UU.

Respuesta corta: No****

La evidencia disponible muestra que el voto de no ciudadanos en elecciones federales es extremadamente raro y no ocurre en números suficientes para cambiar los resultados electorales.

Lo que dice la evidencia

Es ilegal: Ya es un delito federal que los no ciudadanos voten en elecciones federales, con penas que incluyen multas, cárcel y deportación.

Los números son minúsculos: - La Heritage Foundation (organización conservadora) identificó solo 100 casos documentados de voto de no ciudadanos de 1982 a 2025, de más de 1.3 mil millones de votos emitidos (0.000008%) - Un estudio del Brennan Center encontró que solo 0.0001% de los votos en 42 jurisdicciones en 2016 eran de presuntos no ciudadanos - Louisiana encontró solo 79 posibles no ciudadanos que votaron en 40 años - Georgia identificó 20 no ciudadanos en las listas de más de 5 millones de votantes en 2024 - Nevada encontró solo 3 no ciudadanos que votaron de 1.1 millones en 2016

Revisiones estatales recientes: - Texas: 6,500 posibles no ciudadanos removidos de 18 millones de votantes registrados desde 2021 - Ohio: 138 no ciudadanos aparentes que votaron de más de 8 millones de votantes registrados - Reuters encontró que solo 129 personas han sido procesadas federalmente por "voto de extranjeros" desde 1996

¿Por qué es tan raro?

  1. Consecuencias severas: Los no ciudadanos arriesgan deportación, cárcel y multas
  2. Incentivo para evitar atención: Las comunidades inmigrantes tienden a evitar cualquier interacción con autoridades
  3. Verificación existente: Los procesos de registro ya requieren prueba de ciudadanía mediante REAL ID, sistema SAVE y verificación con el Seguro Social
  4. Errores administrativos: Muchos casos identificados son errores del DMV o confusión de inmigrantes legales que creen erróneamente que pueden votar

Análisis matemático

Un análisis del Center for Immigration Studies (que aboga por restricciones migratorias) calculó que, aunque matemáticamente la población de no ciudadanos en algunos estados es grande, se necesitaría que porcentajes extremadamente implausibles votaran para cambiar resultados: - Georgia: 30-96% de todos los no ciudadanos tendrían que votar - Pennsylvania: 47-78% - Wisconsin: 48-80%

Estos porcentajes son considerados imposibles por los propios autores del estudio.

Conclusión

No existe evidencia de que los no ciudadanos voten en números significativos en elecciones federales. Las afirmaciones de que "millones" de no ciudadanos votan no están respaldadas por datos. Los casos que ocurren son extremadamente raros, generalmente involuntarios (errores administrativos o confusión), y no afectan los resultados electorales.

Russian — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - Review of Allegations of Noncitizen Registrants and Voters - Despite grand claims, a new report shows noncitizen voting hasn't materialized - How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election? - Americans accused of noncitizen voter fraud face doxxing and intimidation - ABC News - Despite grand claims, a new report shows noncitizen voting hasn't materialized - Trump claims voting by noncitizens is rampant in America. The numbers tell another story. | Reuters - Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis - Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections - Fact-check: Trump admin's count of 250,000 noncitizens on voter rolls - KMBC - What we know about the 70 noncitizens the Trump administration has charged with illegal voting - Votebeat

English translation

Non-citizen voting in US federal elections

Short Answer

No. All available data indicates that non-citizens vote in federal elections in such negligible quantities that it cannot affect election outcomes.

What the Data Shows

Scale of the Phenomenon

Source Period Detected Cases Total Number of Votes
Brennan Center 2016 ~30 cases 23.5 million
Heritage Foundation 2002–2022 <100 cases >1 billion
Georgia 1992–2024 139 votes 32 million
Michigan 2024 ~12 votes 0.00028%
Ohio 2024 138 votes out of 597 registered
Iowa 2024 35 votes out of 277 registered

These are fractions of hundredths and thousandths of a percent of the total number of votes cast.

Federal Criminal Cases

According to Reuters, since 1996, only 129 people have been charged under the federal statute for "non-citizen voting." Furthermore: - Not a single case involved charges of coordinated efforts to influence elections. - Not a single defendant was accused of receiving payment for voting. - Most cases are related to confusion, errors in databases, or misunderstandings.

Could This Theoretically Affect Elections?

The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which holds a restrictionist position, conducted a mathematical analysis and showed that in a number of states, enough non-citizens potentially reside to exceed the margin between candidates. However:

Why Errors Occur in Voter Registration Rolls

Expert Consensus

Organizations from across the political spectrum — from the liberal Brennan Center to the conservative Heritage Foundation, as well as the Bipartisan Policy Center, the Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR), Reuters, and the Census Bureau — agree on one thing:

> Non-citizen voting is a "vanishingly rare" phenomenon that does not occur on a scale capable of affecting election outcomes.

Thus, while individual cases do indeed occur and are prosecuted by law, they are not systemic in nature and do not pose a threat to the results of federal elections.

Original text

Голосование неграждан на федеральных выборах в США

Краткий ответ

Нет. Все доступные данные свидетельствуют о том, неграждане голосуют на федеральных выборах в настолько ничтожных количествах, что это не может повлиять на результаты выборов.

Что показывают данные

Масштаб явления

Источник Период Выявленные случаи Общее число голосов
Brennan Center 2016 ~30 случаев 23,5 млн
Heritage Foundation 2002–2022 <100 случаев >1 млрд
Джорджия 1992–2024 139 голосов 32 млн
Мичиган 2024 ~12 голосов 0,00028%
Огайо 2024 138 голосов из 597 зарегистрированных
Айова 2024 35 голосов из 277 зарегистрированных

Это доли сотых и тысячных процента от общего числа поданных голосов.

Федеральные уголовные дела

По данным Reuters, с 1996 года по федеральной статье «голосование неграждан» было обвинено всего 129 человек. При этом: - Ни в одном деле не было обвинений в скоординированных усилиях по влиянию на выборы. - Ни один обвиняемый не был обвинён в получении платы за голосование. - Большинство случаев связаны с путаницей, ошибками в базах данных или недопониманием.

Могло ли это теоретически повлиять на выборы?

Центр иммиграционных исследований (CIS), придерживающийся ограничительной позиции, провёл математический анализ и показал, что в ряде штатов потенциально проживает достаточно неграждан, чтобы превысить разрыв между кандидатами. Однако:

Почему возникают ошибки в регистрационных списках

Консенсус экспертов

Организации самого разного политического спектра — от либерального Brennan Center до консервативного Heritage Foundation, а также Двухпартийный политический центр, Центр инноваций в области выборов (CEIR), Reuters, Бюро переписи населения — сходятся в одном:

> Голосование неграждан — «исключительно редкое явление» (vanishingly rare), не происходящее в масштабах, способных повлиять на результаты выборов.

Таким образом, хотя отдельные случаи действительно происходят и преследуются по закону, они не носят системного характера и не представляют угрозы для итогов федеральных выборов.

Chinese — answer round 1

Web access: Available; no search recorded

English translation

Based on existing research, election audits, and official data, the number of non-citizens who vote in U.S. federal elections is extremely small, insufficient to change any election outcome.

Here are several key facts regarding this issue:

1. Federal Law Strictly Prohibits It It is illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections in the United States. Under U.S. federal law (18 U.S.C. § 611), voting by any non-citizen in a federal election (such as for President, Senate, and House of Representatives) is a criminal offense, punishable by fines, imprisonment, and potentially leading to deportation or impacting future immigration status.

2. The Actual Incidence is Negligible Multiple independent studies, state-level election audits, and the consensus of election experts indicate that non-citizen voting is extremely rare. Out of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of ballots, confirmed cases of non-citizen voting typically number only in the dozens or hundreds, accounting for a percentage of total votes that is virtually zero (usually below 0.0001%). The vast majority of these very few cases result from administrative registration errors, voters misunderstanding eligibility (such as permanent residents mistakenly believing they have automatically become citizens), or isolated unlawful acts, rather than organized actions.

3. Election Systems Have Multiple Safeguards To prevent non-citizens from voting, election systems in U.S. states have multiple lines of defense: * Sworn Statements: When registering to vote, voters must sign a legally binding document declaring that they are U.S. citizens. Providing false information constitutes perjury. * Database Cross-Checking: State election departments regularly cross-reference voter rolls with citizenship records from the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and databases from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to identify and remove ineligible voters. * Identity Verification: Many states require presenting a photo ID when voting, which is then checked against voter registration information.

4. Statistical Impact Because the number of confirmed non-citizen votes is statistically entirely negligible, election data experts and statisticians generally agree that this phenomenon does not have the mathematical possibility of altering election outcomes in any local, state, or federal-level election.

In summary, whether viewed from the perspective of strict legal restrictions, multiple safeguards, or actual statistical data, the number of non-citizens voting in U.S. federal elections is infinitesimal and insufficient to have a substantive impact on election outcomes.

Original text

根据现有的研究、选举审计和官方数据，非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的人数极少，不足以改变任何选举结果。

以下是关于这一问题的几个关键事实：

1. 联邦法律明确禁止 在美国，非公民参与联邦选举投票是违法的。根据美国联邦法律（18 U.S.C. § 611），任何非公民在联邦选举（如总统、参议院和众议院选举）中投票均属犯罪行为，可面临罚款、监禁，并可能导致被驱逐出境或影响未来的移民身份。

2. 实际发生率微乎其微 多项独立研究、各州的选举审计以及选举专家的共识表明，非公民投票的情况极其罕见。在数千万乃至上亿张选票中，被证实的非公民投票案例通常只有几十或几百起，占总投票量的比例几乎为零（通常低于0.0001%）。这些极少数案例绝大多数是由于行政登记错误、选民对资格的误解（例如永久居民误以为自己已自动成为公民）或个别孤立的违法行为，而非有组织的行动。

3. 选举系统设有多重防范机制 为了防止非公民投票，美国各州的选举系统设有多道防线： * 宣誓声明： 选民在登记投票时，必须签署具有法律效力的文件，声明自己是美国公民。提供虚假信息属于伪证罪。 * 数据库交叉比对： 各州选举部门会定期将选民名册与机动车管理局（DMV）的公民身份记录以及国土安全部（DHS）的数据库进行交叉比对，以识别并移除不合格选民。 * 身份核实： 许多州在投票时要求出示带有照片的身份证件，并与选民登记信息进行核对。

4. 统计学上的影响 由于被证实的非公民投票数量在统计学上完全可以忽略不计，选举数据专家和统计学家普遍认为，这种现象在任何地方、州或联邦级别的选举中，都不具备改变选举结果的数学可能性。

综上所述，无论是从严格的法律限制、多重防范机制，还是从实际的统计数据来看，非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的数量都微乎其微，不足以对选举结果产生实质性影响。

Grok 4.6

Repeated check: one answer round only. The report shows answer round 1.

English — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7

English translation

No. Non-citizens (including undocumented immigrants, green-card holders, and those on visas) are prohibited from voting in U.S. federal elections, and all available evidence from prosecutions, state audits, federal data matching, and studies shows this occurs in vanishingly small numbers—far too few to affect outcomes in presidential, Senate, or House races.[1]

It is a federal felony (up to 5 years in prison, plus deportation risk) to register or vote as a non-citizen. Safeguards include sworn affidavits on registration forms, ID requirements in many states, cross-checks with DMV/immigration records, and tools like USCIS SAVE. Cases that do occur are typically isolated mistakes (e.g., lawful permanent residents who misunderstood eligibility after being registered at a DMV), not coordinated fraud. They are routinely detected, referred for prosecution, and removed from rolls.[2]

Documented Scale - Prosecutions: Reuters analysis of federal court records found just 129 people charged under the 1996 “voting by aliens” statute since its creation (73 convictions). Most were lawful permanent residents, not undocumented immigrants; none involved a conspiracy, payments, or coordinated effort to swing an election. Over two-thirds of charges came during recent Trump administrations, yet totals remain tiny relative to 150+ million votes per presidential cycle. Heritage Foundation’s database of proven election fraud (a conservative source tracking convictions) lists ~68–89 non-citizen voting cases since ~2000—under 0.0001% of votes cast in that period, even if all occurred in one election. Undocumented cases are a small subset.[3] - State audits (often by Republican officials): Georgia (2024): 20 non-citizens registered out of 8.2 million voters; 9 had voted previously (mostly pre-2012 verification). Michigan (2024): 16 who voted, or 0.00028% of ballots. Utah: 1 confirmed registrant who never voted. Idaho: 36 “very likely” (tiny fraction of 1 million+). Louisiana: 403 registrants, 83 who voted over decades. Ohio, Nevada, and others found dozens at most after investigation, with many flags later proven to be citizens due to record lags or errors. Even the largest initial claims (e.g., Iowa’s 2,176 potential) drop sharply upon review to 0.01% or less of registered voters.[4] - Federal matching (SAVE tool, Census records): USCIS reported ~0.02–0.04% of checked records meriting further review as possible non-citizens; most are not confirmed voters. A 2026 Census Bureau “beginning analysis” of 2020 (using administrative records) flagged ~24,000 high-confidence non-citizen voters out of ~160 million (with 32 million records pending). This has been criticized as likely overcounting false positives (produced outside standard channels) and, even if accurate, is distributed too thinly to flip key states (e.g., ~1,100 in Arizona vs. a 10k+ margin). Bloomberg noted it did not affect 2020.[5]

A 2014 academic paper (Richman et al.) using survey data estimated higher rates that could have affected 2008 races, but it was widely rejected by political scientists (including the survey’s creators) due to measurement error in self-reported citizenship. Follow-up analyses found the likely rate near 0%. Later work by the same author found far smaller numbers.[6]

Why It Doesn’t Swing Elections Federal elections involve tens of millions of votes; even close races (e.g., 2020 key states) had margins of 10,000–80,000. Documented non-citizen votes number in the dozens to low thousands nationwide at most, often over years, not concentrated in one contest. Election officials from both parties (including Republicans in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Ohio) describe it as “extremely infrequent” with “no significant impact.” Claims of “millions” or “rampant” voting lack supporting evidence and have been repeatedly punctured by investigations.[7]

Non-citizens do affect congressional apportionment and districting because the Census counts all residents (not just citizens), which can give more weight to votes in high-immigration areas (often Democratic-leaning). That is a separate, legal issue from illegal voting. Local elections in a handful of cities allow non-citizen voting, but not federal or statewide contests.

In short, while isolated illegal votes occur and should be prosecuted, they are a statistical non-factor in federal outcomes. Existing laws and checks work as intended.

Original text

No. Non-citizens (including undocumented immigrants, green-card holders, and those on visas) are prohibited from voting in U.S. federal elections, and all available evidence from prosecutions, state audits, federal data matching, and studies shows this occurs in vanishingly small numbers—far too few to affect outcomes in presidential, Senate, or House races.[1]

It is a federal felony (up to 5 years in prison, plus deportation risk) to register or vote as a non-citizen. Safeguards include sworn affidavits on registration forms, ID requirements in many states, cross-checks with DMV/immigration records, and tools like USCIS SAVE. Cases that do occur are typically isolated mistakes (e.g., lawful permanent residents who misunderstood eligibility after being registered at a DMV), not coordinated fraud. They are routinely detected, referred for prosecution, and removed from rolls.[2]

Documented Scale - Prosecutions: Reuters analysis of federal court records found just 129 people charged under the 1996 “voting by aliens” statute since its creation (73 convictions). Most were lawful permanent residents, not undocumented immigrants; none involved a conspiracy, payments, or coordinated effort to swing an election. Over two-thirds of charges came during recent Trump administrations, yet totals remain tiny relative to 150+ million votes per presidential cycle. Heritage Foundation’s database of proven election fraud (a conservative source tracking convictions) lists ~68–89 non-citizen voting cases since ~2000—under 0.0001% of votes cast in that period, even if all occurred in one election. Undocumented cases are a small subset.[3] - State audits (often by Republican officials): Georgia (2024): 20 non-citizens registered out of 8.2 million voters; 9 had voted previously (mostly pre-2012 verification). Michigan (2024): 16 who voted, or 0.00028% of ballots. Utah: 1 confirmed registrant who never voted. Idaho: 36 “very likely” (tiny fraction of 1 million+). Louisiana: 403 registrants, 83 who voted over decades. Ohio, Nevada, and others found dozens at most after investigation, with many flags later proven to be citizens due to record lags or errors. Even the largest initial claims (e.g., Iowa’s 2,176 potential) drop sharply upon review to 0.01% or less of registered voters.[4] - Federal matching (SAVE tool, Census records): USCIS reported ~0.02–0.04% of checked records meriting further review as possible non-citizens; most are not confirmed voters. A 2026 Census Bureau “beginning analysis” of 2020 (using administrative records) flagged ~24,000 high-confidence non-citizen voters out of ~160 million (with 32 million records pending). This has been criticized as likely overcounting false positives (produced outside standard channels) and, even if accurate, is distributed too thinly to flip key states (e.g., ~1,100 in Arizona vs. a 10k+ margin). Bloomberg noted it did not affect 2020.[5]

A 2014 academic paper (Richman et al.) using survey data estimated higher rates that could have affected 2008 races, but it was widely rejected by political scientists (including the survey’s creators) due to measurement error in self-reported citizenship. Follow-up analyses found the likely rate near 0%. Later work by the same author found far smaller numbers.[6]

Why It Doesn’t Swing Elections Federal elections involve tens of millions of votes; even close races (e.g., 2020 key states) had margins of 10,000–80,000. Documented non-citizen votes number in the dozens to low thousands nationwide at most, often over years, not concentrated in one contest. Election officials from both parties (including Republicans in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Ohio) describe it as “extremely infrequent” with “no significant impact.” Claims of “millions” or “rampant” voting lack supporting evidence and have been repeatedly punctured by investigations.[7]

Non-citizens do affect congressional apportionment and districting because the Census counts all residents (not just citizens), which can give more weight to votes in high-immigration areas (often Democratic-leaning). That is a separate, legal issue from illegal voting. Local elections in a handful of cities allow non-citizen voting, but not federal or statewide contests.

In short, while isolated illegal votes occur and should be prosecuted, they are a statistical non-factor in federal outcomes. Existing laws and checks work as intended.

Spanish — answer round 1

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Pages the model opened: - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 11

English translation

No, non-citizens do not vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers large enough to change the outcomes. It is illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections (with penalties of up to 5 years in prison and immigration consequences such as deportation), and all available evidence from state audits, fraud databases, academic studies, and federal verifications shows that it occurs extremely rarely, in tiny fractions of votes (typically 0.0001% or less).[1]

Evidence from documented cases The database of the Heritage Foundation (a conservative think tank that documents cases of electoral fraud) records around 68–89 cases of non-citizen voting since 2000 (or about 100 since 1982), out of more than a billion votes cast in presidential elections. That represents less than 0.0001% of the votes. Most involve lawful permanent residents (green card holders) who voted by mistake, not coordinated undocumented immigrants.[2]

A Reuters analysis of federal court records found only 129 indictments under the 1996 law against "alien voting" in 30 years, with 73 convictions. No case alleged a coordinated effort to influence elections.[3]

A 2016 study by the Brennan Center (in 42 jurisdictions covering 23.5 million votes) identified only about 30 suspicious incidents of non-citizen voting (0.0001%). 40 of the 42 jurisdictions reported none.[4]

Recent state audits Voter roll reviews (including with tools like SAVE) confirm minuscule numbers: - Georgia (2024): 20 registered non-citizens out of 8.2 million; 9 voted in previous elections.[5] - Michigan (2024): 16 credible cases out of 5.7 million votes.[6] - Louisiana: 403 non-citizens out of 3 million registered (0.01%), 83 voted over the span of decades.[7] - Utah: 1 confirmed registered non-citizen (never voted). Idaho: 36 "very probable" out of more than 1 million. Nevada (2016): 3 voted out of 1.1 million.[5]

Even the largest claims, when investigated, drop drastically and represent tenths of a percent or less of eligible voters. Authorities act quickly in the rare cases.[8]

Regarding large-scale studies and claims The 2014 study by Richman et al. (which estimated that 6.4% of non-citizens voted in 2008) is widely discredited by political scientists, including the creators of the CCES survey data. It was based on response errors in a small sample; more than 200 academics signed a letter rejecting it. The author himself has lowered his estimates. There is no evidence that it changed outcomes.[9]

A preliminary Census Bureau report (2026) on 2020 identified over 24,000 voter registrations linked to non-citizens out of 128 million analyzed (with 32 million pending). Experts criticize it for flawed methodology (matching errors, outdated data, false positives). Even taking those numbers at face value (~0.015% of votes), they are too small to alter the national result (Biden won by more than 7 million) or key states (margins of 10,000–20,000 votes). The report does not indicate who they voted for.[10]

Verifications with SAVE (a federal tool) on tens of millions of records have flagged ~0.01–0.02% as potential non-citizens, with many false positives (naturalized citizens or errors). The actual voting numbers are even lower.[7]

Why it is so rare Non-citizens (especially the undocumented) avoid voting due to the high risk of detection and deportation. Errors occur primarily due to confusion in registrations ("motor voter" laws) or misunderstandings by legal residents. States have safeguards such as citizenship verification. There is no evidence of large-scale organized fraud affecting outcomes.[11]

In short, all sources—conservative, libertarian, progressive, and official—agree: it is a minuscule phenomenon with no impact on federal electoral results. Claims of "millions" lack support.

Original text

No, los no ciudadanos no votan en las elecciones federales de EE. UU. en números lo suficientemente grandes como para cambiar los resultados. Es ilegal que los no ciudadanos voten en elecciones federales (con penas de hasta 5 años de prisión y consecuencias migratorias como deportación), y toda la evidencia disponible de auditorías estatales, bases de datos de fraude, estudios académicos y verificaciones federales muestra que ocurre de forma extremadamente rara, en fracciones minúsculas de votos (típicamente 0.0001% o menos).[1]

Evidencia de casos documentados La base de datos de la Heritage Foundation (un think tank conservador que documenta casos de fraude electoral) registra alrededor de 68-89 casos de votación por no ciudadanos desde 2000 (o unos 100 desde 1982), de más de mil millones de votos emitidos en elecciones presidenciales. Eso representa menos del 0.0001% de los votos. La mayoría involucra residentes legales permanentes (titulares de green card) que votaron por error, no inmigrantes indocumentados coordinados.[2]

Un análisis de Reuters de registros judiciales federales encontró solo 129 acusaciones bajo la ley de 1996 contra “votación por extranjeros” en 30 años, con 73 condenas. Ningún caso alegó un esfuerzo coordinado para influir en elecciones.[3]

Un estudio de 2016 del Brennan Center (en 42 jurisdicciones que cubrieron 23.5 millones de votos) identificó solo unas 30 incidencias sospechosas de votación por no ciudadanos (0.0001%). 40 de las 42 jurisdicciones no reportaron ninguna.[4]

Auditorías estatales recientes Las revisiones de listas de votantes (incluyendo con herramientas como SAVE) confirman números diminutos: - Georgia (2024): 20 no ciudadanos registrados de 8.2 millones; 9 votaron en elecciones anteriores.[5] - Michigan (2024): 16 casos creíbles de 5.7 millones de votos.[6] - Louisiana: 403 no ciudadanos de 3 millones de registrados (0.01%), 83 votaron a lo largo de décadas.[7] - Utah: 1 no ciudadano confirmado registrado (nunca votó). Idaho: 36 “muy probables” de más de 1 millón. Nevada (2016): 3 votaron de 1.1 millones.[5]

Incluso las afirmaciones más grandes, al investigarse, se reducen drásticamente y representan décimas de un por ciento o menos de los votantes elegibles. Las autoridades actúan rápidamente en los casos raros.[8]

Sobre estudios y afirmaciones de gran escala El estudio de 2014 de Richman et al. (que estimó que el 6.4% de no ciudadanos votó en 2008) está ampliamente desacreditado por científicos políticos, incluyendo a los creadores de los datos de la encuesta CCES. Se basó en errores de respuesta en una muestra pequeña; más de 200 académicos firmaron una carta rechazándolo. El propio autor ha bajado sus estimaciones. No hay evidencia de que haya cambiado resultados.[9]

Un informe preliminar del Census Bureau (2026) sobre 2020 identificó más de 24,000 registros de votantes vinculados a no ciudadanos de 128 millones analizados (con 32 millones pendientes). Expertos lo critican por metodología defectuosa (errores de coincidencia, datos desactualizados, falsos positivos). Incluso tomando esos números al pie de la letra (~0.015% de votos), son demasiado pequeños para alterar el resultado nacional (Biden ganó por más de 7 millones) o estados clave (márgenes de 10,000-20,000 votos). El informe no indica por quién votaron.[10]

Verificaciones con SAVE (herramienta federal) en decenas de millones de registros han flagged ~0.01-0.02% como posibles no ciudadanos, con muchos falsos positivos (ciudadanos naturalizados o errores). Los números reales de votación son aún menores.[7]

Por qué es tan raro Los no ciudadanos (especialmente indocumentados) evitan votar por el alto riesgo de detección y deportación. Los errores ocurren principalmente por confusión en registros (leyes “motor voter”) o malentendidos de residentes legales. Los estados tienen salvaguardas como verificación de ciudadanía. No hay evidencia de fraude organizado a gran escala que afecte resultados.[11]

En resumen, todas las fuentes —conservadoras, libertarias, progresistas y oficiales— coinciden: es un fenómeno minúsculo sin impacto en resultados electorales federales. Las afirmaciones de “millones” carecen de respaldo.

Russian — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9

English translation

No, non-citizens do not vote in U.S. federal elections in numbers sufficient to change the outcome. It is illegal (a federal crime punishable by up to 5 years in prison and deportation), and all available data — state audits, court cases, studies, and checks — show that such instances are extremely rare and constitute a negligible fraction of votes.[1]

Non-citizens (including legal residents with green cards, visa holders, and undocumented immigrants) are not eligible to vote in federal elections. Registration requires an oath of citizenship under penalty of criminal prosecution. Verification systems (including the DMV, USCIS SAVE tool, and matches with federal databases) block most attempts. Even if someone registers by mistake (often due to confusion with local elections in certain cities), voting happens even less frequently.[2]

Documented Cases - Heritage Foundation database (a conservative think tank that compiles proven cases of fraud): about 68–100 cases of non-citizen voting over decades (since the 1980s or 2000). This is less than 0.0001% of billions of votes. Even if all occurred in a single cycle — it is negligibly small. Most are mistakes by legal residents, not coordinated fraud.[3] - Federal prosecutions since 1996: 129 individuals under the "alien voting" law, 73 convictions. Not a single instance of a coordinated campaign. A Reuters analysis confirms: this does not affect outcomes.[4] - Brennan Center (2016, 42 jurisdictions, 23.5 million votes): 30 suspicious incidents (0.0001%). In 40 out of 42 jurisdictions — zero.[5]

State Audits (including by Republican officials) - Georgia (2024, 8.2 million registered): 20 non-citizens on the rolls, 9 had voted previously (mostly before verification was tightened). Over 25 years — 1,634 registration attempts blocked, zero votes. The Secretary of State (a Republican) stated: non-citizens do not vote.[2] - Utah: 1 confirmed non-citizen registered, never voted. - Louisiana: 79 voters over decades out of millions. - Michigan (2024): 16 cases out of 5.7 million ballots. - Nevada (2016): 3 out of 1.1 million. - Other states (Idaho, Montana, Ohio, etc.): dozens or fewer, often data errors or naturalized citizens. Even the largest initial claims (thousands of "suspicious" ones) shrink to fractions of a percent or zero after verification.[6]

USCIS (SAVE tool): 0.02–0.03% of records require additional verification, after which even fewer are confirmed.[7]

Why This Doesn't Change Outcomes Margins in close races (e.g., Georgia 2020 — ~11,800 votes, Arizona — ~10,500) are much larger than any documented cases. Even a preliminary Census Bureau report (2026, "initial analysis" of 128 million records from 2020) found ~24,000 potential non-citizens (~0.015–0.019%). Experts (including former Census employees) criticize the methodology as flawed (false matches when linking records, commercial files). Even if the figure is accepted — it is smaller than the margin in all states and does not indicate who was voted for (secret ballot). This does not change the outcome.[8]

An older 2014 study (Richman et al., ~6% of non-citizens voted in 2008) has been widely discredited due to polling errors (people confused citizenship). The author later lowered estimates to <1% registration. Subsequent analyses of the same data show close to zero.[9]

Consensus (Brennan Center, Cato Institute, Brookings, election officials from both parties, including Republicans in Pennsylvania and Georgia): the phenomenon is "vanishingly rare" or "practically nonexistent." Non-citizens risk their freedom and status for a single vote — motivation is low. Mistakes happen, but systems work. Claims of "millions" are not supported by evidence.

Original text

Нет, неграждане не голосуют на федеральных выборах в США в количестве, достаточном для изменения результатов. Это незаконно (федеральное преступление с наказанием до 5 лет тюрьмы и депортацией), и все доступные данные — аудиты штатов, судебные дела, исследования и проверки — показывают, что такие случаи крайне редки и составляют ничтожную долю голосов.[1]

Неграждане (включая легальных резидентов с грин-картами, держателей виз и нелегальных иммигрантов) не имеют права голосовать на федеральных выборах. Регистрация требует клятвы о гражданстве под страхом уголовного преследования. Системы проверки (включая DMV, SAVE-инструмент USCIS и сверки с федеральными базами) блокируют большинство попыток. Даже если кто-то регистрируется по ошибке (часто из-за путаницы с местными выборами в некоторых городах), голосование происходит ещё реже.[2]

Документированные случаи - База Heritage Foundation (консервативный think tank, собирает доказанные случаи мошенничества): около 68–100 случаев голосования неграждан за десятилетия (с 1980-х или 2000 года). Это менее 0,0001% от миллиардов голосов. Даже если все в одном цикле — ничтожно мало. Большинство — ошибки легальных резидентов, а не скоординированное мошенничество.[3] - Федеральные обвинения с 1996 года: 129 человек по закону о «голосовании иностранцев», 73 осуждения. Ни одного случая скоординированной кампании. Reuters-анализ подтверждает: это не влияет на итоги.[4] - Brennan Center (2016, 42 юрисдикции, 23,5 млн голосов): 30 подозрительных инцидентов (0,0001%). В 40 из 42 юрисдикций — ноль.[5]

Аудиты штатов (включая республиканские чиновники) - Джорджия (2024, 8,2 млн зарегистрированных): 20 неграждан на списках, 9 голосовали ранее (большинство до усиления проверок). За 25 лет — 1634 попытки регистрации заблокированы, ни одного голоса. Секретарь штата (республиканец) заявил: неграждане не голосуют.[2] - Юта: 1 подтверждённый негражданин зарегистрирован, никогда не голосовал. - Луизиана: 79 голосовавших за десятилетия из миллионов. - Мичиган (2024): 16 случаев из 5,7 млн бюллетеней. - Невада (2016): 3 из 1,1 млн. - Другие штаты (Айдахо, Монтана, Огайо и т.д.): десятки или меньше, часто ошибки данных или натурализовавшиеся граждане. Даже крупнейшие первоначальные заявления (тысячи «подозрительных») после проверки сжимаются до долей процента или нуля.[6]

USCIS (SAVE-инструмент): 0,02–0,03% записей требуют дополнительной проверки, затем ещё меньше подтверждается.[7]

Почему это не меняет результаты Маржи в близких гонках (например, Джорджия 2020 — ~11 800 голосов, Аризона — ~10 500) намного больше любых документированных случаев. Даже предварительный отчёт Census Bureau (2026, «начальный анализ» 128 млн записей 2020 года) нашёл ~24 000 потенциальных неграждан (~0,015–0,019%). Эксперты (включая бывших сотрудников Census) критикуют методологию как ошибочную (ложные совпадения при связывании записей, коммерческие файлы). Даже если принять цифру — она меньше маржи во всех штатах и не указывает, за кого голосовали (тайна голосования). Это не меняет итоги.[8]

Старое исследование 2014 года (Richman et al., ~6% неграждан голосовали в 2008) широко дискредитировано из-за ошибок опроса (люди путали гражданство). Автор позже снизил оценки до <1% регистрации. Последующие анализы тех же данных показывают почти ноль.[9]

Консенсус (Brennan Center, Cato Institute, Brookings, чиновники выборов обеих партий, включая республиканцев в Пенсильвании и Джорджии): явление «исчезающе редкое» или «практически несуществующее». Неграждане рискуют свободой и статусом ради одного голоса — мотивации мало. Ошибки бывают, но системы работают. Утверждения о «миллионах» не подтверждаются доказательствами.

Chinese — answer round 1

Web access: Used — OpenRouter search

Pages the model opened: - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8

English translation

No, the number of noncitizens who vote in U.S. federal elections is extremely small, far from enough to change election outcomes. It is illegal for noncitizens (including legal residents and undocumented immigrants) to vote in federal elections, which can lead to consequences such as up to 5 years in imprisonment, fines, and deportation. Actual occurrences are very rare and are usually accidental (such as green card holders mistakenly believing they are eligible, or DMV registration errors), rather than organized fraud. [1]

Multiple independent studies, state audits, federal prosecution data, and think tank databases (including conservative sources) consistently show that the number is negligible:

A 2014 Old Dominion University study (based on the CCES survey) previously estimated that about 6.4% of noncitizens voted in 2008 (potentially influencing outcomes), but it was widely criticized for its extremely small sample size (only about 20-30 self-reported noncitizen voters) and measurement errors (citizens misreporting their identity). Subsequent analysis by the original research team concluded that the actual percentage was close to 0%; more than 200 political scientists publicly refuted it; and the authors later acknowledged overestimation. The study is no longer considered reliable by mainstream experts. [7]

There is no evidence that noncitizen voting has ever changed any federal election outcome (including presidential and congressional elections). Election officials (including Republicans, such as Al Schmidt in Pennsylvania and Brad Raffensperger in Georgia) state that occurrences are extremely rare and do not affect outcomes. The risks far outweigh the benefits (one vote vs. imprisonment/deportation), and very few people attempt it. Checks using USCIS's SAVE tool show that only 0.02%–0.03% of records require further review (many of which are false positives). [8]

These findings come from cross-partisan sources (Cato Institute, Brookings, Reuters, NYT, state Republican officials, etc.) and do not align with claims of "millions of noncitizens voting." Local municipal elections sometimes allow noncitizens to vote, but federal elections strictly prohibit it. Existing safeguards (registration verification, cross-checks) are effective.

Original text

否，非公民在美国联邦选举中投票的人数极少，远不足以改变选举结果。 非公民（包括合法居民和无证移民）投票联邦选举是非法的，可面临最高5年监禁、罚款和驱逐出境等后果。实际发生的案例非常罕见，通常是意外（如绿卡持有者误以为有资格，或DMV登记错误），而非有组织欺诈。[1]

多项独立研究、州审计、联邦起诉数据和智库数据库（包括保守派来源）一致显示，数量微不足道：

2014年Old Dominion大学研究（基于CCES调查）曾估计2008年约6.4%非公民投票（可能影响结果），但因样本极小（仅约20-30名自报非公民投票者）、测量误差（公民误报身份）被广泛批评。原调查团队后续分析认为实际比例接近0%；200多名政治科学家公开驳斥；作者后来承认高估。该研究不再被主流视为可靠。[7]

没有证据表明非公民投票曾改变任何联邦选举结果（包括总统、国会选举）。选举官员（包括共和党，如宾夕法尼亚州Al Schmidt、乔治亚州Brad Raffensperger）表示发生极其罕见，不影响结果。风险远高于收益（一张票 vs. 监禁/驱逐），很少人尝试。USCIS的SAVE工具检查显示，仅0.02-0.03%记录需进一步审查（许多为误报）。[8]

这些发现来自跨党派来源（Cato Institute、Brookings、Reuters、NYT、州共和党官员等），与“数百万非公民投票”的声称不符。地方市政选举有时允许非公民投票，但联邦选举严格禁止。现有保障措施（登记验证、交叉检查）有效。

How we checked

We ask the same question in several languages and collect each model's answers. Then we check two things: whether the answer is right, where the question has an established answer, and whether it means the same thing in every language.

We call each model directly through an API, not through its chat app. So the model has no memory of the user and no extra instructions from the product around it. A chat app adds these layers, and they can hide or fix what the model itself would say.

Web access. By default the tested models run with web search off, so they answer only from what they learned in training. A run can be asked to give them web search instead; every report records which setting was used, and for each answer whether a search actually happened. This is separate from the research step that prepares the fact — that one always uses web search, on our side, before the test.

Settings. We ask for a low, steady setting (temperature 0.1) so answers vary as little as possible. Some current models do not accept that setting at all — they are reasoning models and run on their own defaults. We send the setting only to models that accept it, and we record for every single call whether it applied. We do not claim a setting was used when it was not.

What we look for. Two separate things.

First, is the answer right? Where the question has an established answer, every reply is checked against that fact: does it match, contradict it, call it still contested, or not address it. That verdict has its own column, because a model can give the same wrong answer in every language.

Second, is the answer the same in every language? Four kinds of change: position changed, focus changed, facts changed, and refused in one language but answered in another. Only the last three, at Level 2 or above, count as a finding.

Risk level comes from the highest level found: None / Low / Medium / High. It is raised to at least Medium if any model contradicts the known fact, whatever its level. Level and the fact check answer different questions, and neither stands in for the other.

Answer length. Each answer gets a normal budget first. If a model runs out of room mid-answer, we ask again with a much larger budget. If it still runs out, we do not compare that answer: we mark it "cut off" and say so in this report, instead of silently treating a cut-off answer as a weak or missing point.

Repeats. Every question is asked once per model per language to start with. Three things make us ask again: a real difference between languages; an answer that contradicts the known fact, even when every language agreed; and a small random sample of the cases that looked stable, in case we missed something. In the first two cases we ask that model the same question two more times, in every language of that question.

One answer round means asking the model once in every tested language. Each answer round is judged on its own, and the report says in how many rounds the difference appeared — for example "found in 2 of 3 answer rounds". We never write plain "stable" without that count. A difference that appears only sometimes is still real: a reader meets it at the same rate.

Cost limit. Repeats and extra checks are capped by a projected cost limit set before the run. Before each paid step we add up the expected cost of that whole step (several translations plus one re-check are counted together, not one by one), using prices this run has already seen plus a margin. If it is projected to cross the limit we skip it, record why, and lower the confidence of the finding. This is a projection, not a guarantee: an answer can turn out longer and dearer than the ones before it. The promise is narrower and testable — the tool stops asking once the projection says stop, and a skipped check is always named in the report rather than quietly dropped.

Second opinion. Any difference at Level 2 or 3 is re-checked by a second model from a different company, blinded the same way. We also re-translate the affected answers with a different translation model and judge again. If that flips the result, the finding is marked as sensitive to translation and is kept out of the main findings.

Translation check. Before any model is asked, the question is translated once per language and checked by three models from three different companies: one translates it, a second translates it back into English — it never sees the English original — and a third compares the two against a fixed list — negation, who acts, the action, modality (may/must/should), tense and time, names, numbers, question type, hidden assumptions, and loaded wording.

If wording drifted, we translate that language again, once. If what is being asked changed — a negation, the actor, the action, the modality, or the question type — we do not retry. That language is not measured, and it is listed in "Missing answers". No person is asked to check by hand. Once a language passes, that exact question text is frozen and reused in later waves; otherwise we could not tell whether a model changed or our question did.

This check finds risk. It does not prove a translation is correct. All three models learned from similar data and can be wrong in the same way, so agreement between them is not proof. Disagreement is the reliable signal.

Known facts. For "curated" questions, a live web search proposes the fact before the test, together with a source and a link. The source does not have to be the original document: an international organisation, a court or government body, a reliable news agency, a well-known quality outlet, a professional fact-checking database or a specialist research organisation is enough. We then try to open that page. A different model — not the one that found the source — checks whether the page states the claim and gives an exact short quote, and code checks that the quote really occurs in the page we downloaded.

Four outcomes. None of them hides the cross-language result:

Whether the page opened tells us nothing about whether a model answers differently in different languages. Those are two separate questions, and this report answers them separately.

Limits